The October
Crisis, when everyone won.
October 22d
marked fifty-five years since the beginning of the most dangerous crisis during
the Cold War, a moment when the world was on the brink of a nuclear war.
Fortunately, seven days later, on October 28, the United States and the Soviet
Union reached an agreement that ended the confrontation over the nuclear
missiles installed in Cuba, an agreement that was received with universal
relief.
Because the
world has never been so close to a nuclear war, and the magnitude and drama of the
events, the whole process is periodically analyzed from all possible approaches-
e.g. military, diplomatic, and political. Some analysts try to draw lessons for
the future; others study the negotiations between President John F. Kennedy and
the Secretary General of the CPSU and Prime Minister of the Soviet Union Nikita
Khrushchev. It’s also examined what was the fate of these two leaders, and of
then Prime Minister Fidel Castro who rejected the part assigned to Cuba by the
two superpowers. Many others are dedicated to determine which side gained more,
ignoring that in fact –as Khrushchev expressed then– who won was world peace.
Or, rather, all parties involved.
In order to
make a judgment on who won in the Missile Crisis it’s not enough to look at the
agreement that ended it; you have to appreciate how relations between the
superpowers evolved from that moment and the impact in Cuba. An additional
interest is to know what the future brought to each one of the three leaders
involved.
Reviewing the
various versions of the reasons that led Khrushchev to propose the installation
of the missiles in Cuba –and Fidel Castro to accept it–, it is clear that the Soviet
Union intended to change the strategic situation vis-a-vis the United States
and also to safeguard Cuba. The Cuban leader, for his part, accepted because
Cuba was under threat of a direct invasion of the United States -and also
because he was politically compelled to show solidarity with the Soviet Union
for ideological reasons and in response to the considerable essential aid it
provided to Cuba.
The United
States reacted against a fait accompli, the missiles were in Cuba. If they
remained there a change in the strategic balance will have been achieved and
for the first time a hostile power would use the Cuban territory as a base,
something that the United States had try to avert for a very long time.
The objectives
of the Soviet Union and Cuba were to modify the correlation of forces between
the two superpowers and to prevent a direct aggression against Cuba. The
reaction of the United States sought to reverse the initiative taken by the Soviet
Union and to ratify their principle that strategic armaments that would
threaten them could not be installed in Cuba
As a result of
the negotiations, the Soviet Union withdrew all strategic weapons from Cuba,
including the Il-18 bombers, allowing verification of their withdrawal,
accepting in fact that the territory of the island could not be used for these
purposes. In exchange, Kennedy agreed not to invade Cuba and withdraw the
missiles installed in Turkey.
Considering
that the United States maintained its missiles in Italy and the United Kingdom
and that it had great superiority in the total amount of nuclear warheads and
vehicles capable of transporting them, the nuclear strategic balance in its favor
was maintained.
But the Soviet
Union achieved the withdrawal of those which it considered most threatening to
its security and also to stop the possibility of an invasion to Cuba, which
helped to consolidate the only socialist revolution in the Western Hemisphere
in a country that had declared its adherence to socialism and preserved it
without the need of Soviet tanks and troops, as was the case in Eastern Europe.
In addition,
and as a follow up result of the negotiations during the crisis, the United
States and the Soviet Union signed the Nuclear Testing Limitation Treaty,
stopping the tests of these weapons in the atmosphere, established the
so-called "hot line" for immediate and direct communications that
would help to avoid a conflict due to misinterpretation of actions, and started
the road that led to the adoption in 1969 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty whose importance has only increased over time.
In the Western
Hemisphere, the Government of Mexico called on the Latin American countries to
negotiate a denuclearization treaty for the region. To this end, in 1963, the
Preparatory Commission for the Denuclearization of Latin America was
established, whose negotiations culminated in the first treaty of its kind in
the world for an entire populated region, the well-known Treaty of Tlatelolco
signed in 1967 by all the Latin American states, except Cuba, and two from the
Caribbean. Although Cuba did not endorse it until 1995, it always respected its
spirit and essence by placing its research and activities in the peaceful use
of atom under safeguard agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The reaction of
the Cuban leader to the agreement reached by Khrushchev and Kennedy was of
indignation. Fidel reacted to the fact that Cuba had been ignored in the
process of negotiating the agreement. The great socialist power had treated
Cuba as a mere pawn. History had already given Cubans a bitter lesson in this
regard when in 1898, in the Treaty of Paris, the fate of the island was decided
between the United States and Spain without representatives of the people who
had fought so hard in the war that was being negotiated.
Cuba rejected
the part assigned to it by the United States and the Soviet Union by refusing
to allow on its territory the inspection of the withdrawal of the armaments.
This demonstration of independence vis-a-vis the two major world powers made it
clear that the main political basis of the Cuban Revolution was, and is, the
defense at any cost of its sovereignty and independence. Alternatively, the
American airplanes would control from the air the rockets and airplanes that
returned in Soviet ships.
But
Washington's commitment not to invade Cuba would provide it with a major
element of security. Although the United States continued its plan of
subversion, terrorist acts and financial, economic and commercial blockade, the
Revolutionary Government was now able to concentrate on defeating all actions
of subversion, including the promotion of a civil war through the organization
and delivery of weapons and supplies from the United States to
counterrevolutionary gangs in Cuba.
In April 1963,
Fidel Castro made his first visit to the Soviet Union, a visit that lasted for
38 days, receiving unique honors such as being the first foreign Head of
Government to speak to the Moscow people from the mausoleum of Lenin, and the
first to visit a submarine base with strategic nuclear weapons. Most
importantly, it achieved important economic and military supply agreements and
a reiteration of the Soviet commitment to the defense of Cuba.
Because of the
results of this visit and the United States' commitment not to directly attack
it, Cuba strengthened its external security.
Negotiating
firmly and calmly President Kennedy forced the withdrawal of Soviet weapons
from Cuba and opened a path of fruitful negotiations with the Soviet Union that
would benefit the position of the United States in the world. He emerged before
public opinion as the great winner in the crisis, but was assassinated thirteen
months later, on November 22, 1963 in Dallas, Texas.
Nikita
Khrushchev –who secured assurances for Cuba, got the American missiles withdraw
from Turkey and opened the way to negotiations with Washington that were a
strategic interest for the Soviet Union– was deposed from his positions in the
Communist Party and the Soviet government on October 14, 1964.
Fidel Castro
continued as the leader of the Cuban revolution. The consolidation of the
external and internal security of the country led to the beginning of the
period known as the "revolutionary offensive”, which with the total
eradication of private activity in the economy in 1968, laid the foundations of
the economic model prevalent on the island. In political terms in 1975 the
First Congress of the Cuban Communist Party and the adoption in 1976 of the
current Constitution completed the main aspects of the system.
José Raúl Viera Linares.
La Habana, October 17, 2017.
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