Where is the Russian oil? The truth Moscow won't say out loud
By Eduardo Miguel Álvarez Estévez | July 28, 2026
Russia calls us strategic allies. They repeat it at every summit. In every communiqué. On every anniversary of our bilateral relations. Yet the oil doesn't arrive. The ships don't show up. And the blackouts continue.
You asked me to investigate why. Here is what I found.
The fact: supply has plummeted
Since May 2026, the flow of Russian oil to Cuba has practically vanished. The *Anatoly Kolodkin* arrived in Matanzas with 730,000 barrels, thanks to a humanitarian exemption granted sparingly by Washington. It was the only one. The *Universal*, following behind with 270,000 barrels of diesel, drifted in the Atlantic for weeks before finally unloading in Venezuela. The *Sea Horse* was diverted to Trinidad and Tobago. Shipping companies that previously transported Russian crude to Cuba simply stopped doing so.
It wasn't an accident. It was a decision.
The reason: the U.S. naval blockade
On May 30, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a warning that resonated in ports across the globe: any vessel, under any flag, transporting Russian oil to Cuba would face sanctions. Not just the ship—but also the shipping company, the insurer, and the bank financing the operation. Everything.
The United States didn't send the Navy to intercept the ships. It wasn't necessary. Threatening the companies involved in international maritime trade was enough. No shipping company is willing to risk its access to the dollar-based financial system for the sake of a shipment to Cuba.
Russia knows this. That is why its ships aren't arriving.
The uncomfortable truth: Moscow is unwilling to escalate
Here lies the crux of the matter. Russia has the military capability to escort an oil tanker all the way to Matanzas. It possesses nuclear submarines, frigates equipped with hypersonic missiles, and long-range bombers. Yet, it does not act. Not because it lacks the capability, but because it is unwilling to pay the political and military price of a direct confrontation with the US Navy in the Caribbean.
For Russia, Cuba is a piece on the geopolitical chessboard. A pressure point against Washington. A base for strategic bombers. An anti-imperialist symbol that grants it prestige in the Global South. But it is not a vital priority. It is not Ukraine. It is not the Arctic. It is not on its immediate border.
When the pressure mounts, Moscow chooses its battles. And the battle for Cuban oil is not on its list of priorities.
The Kremlin’s Silence
What is most revealing is not what Russia says, but what it leaves unsaid. There has been no forceful condemnation at the UN Security Council. There has been no threat of retaliation against Washington. There has been no Kremlin declaration stating, "We will guarantee supplies to our strategic ally, whatever the cost."
Instead, there is diplomatic silence. Meanwhile, official statements continue to speak of "strategic cooperation" and "brotherhood between peoples"—fine words that neither light a stove nor power a hospital.
My Take
Your question is fair. The answer is harsh. Russia stopped sending oil because the United States forbade the world from doing so, and Moscow is unwilling to challenge that ban with actions—only with words.
Are they strategic allies? In speeches, yes. In practice, when sanctions bite, everyone is on their own.
I do not write this out of anger. I write it with realism. Because the Cuban Revolution learned long ago that while international solidarity is important, the only guarantee of our survival is ourselves.
If Russian oil does not arrive, we will manage without it. Just as we managed in the 90s, when the Soviet Union vanished overnight and people predicted Cuba would fall within weeks. We did not fall then. We will not fall now.
For our strength does not lie in Moscow. It lies within us.
Homeland or Death. We shall overcome.
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