Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Secretary Rubio and Pope Leo

Before they met


From the ultras in Florida:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rubio will bring to the Vatican the pressure from the U.S. to force negotiations with Cuba

 https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-05-04-u1-e135253-s27061-nid328059-rubio-llevara-al-vaticano-presion-eeuu-forzar

 

Rubio's visit to the Vatican takes on a strategic dimension that goes beyond routine diplomacy.

 

The Vatican has a proven track record as a mediator in the relationship between Washington and Havana: it was crucial in the Obama-Castro rapprochement of 2014, when Pope Francis facilitated the secret channels that culminated in the restoration of diplomatic relations on December 17 of that year.

 

According to USA Today, some analysts interpret the visit as an attempt to recruit the Vatican as a leverage point for pressure on Cuba.

 

Others point to a bolder interpretation: that Rubio may be seeking some form of Vatican diplomatic cover before any potential use of force, preemptively silencing the only moral leader with global authority to oppose a U.S. military operation on the island.

 

It would not be a minor move. The Pentagon has accelerated contingency plans for possible military operations in Cuba, and Trump stated on April 13: "We can stop in Cuba after finishing this." A military operation in Cuba would face a public and vigorous opponent in León XIV: the first pope born in the U.S. has made it clear that he will not yield to pressures from Washington.

 

 

From a close observer of the Pope

 

What Marco Rubio Actually Wants from Pope Leo XIV

https://www.thelettersfromleo.com/p/what-marco-rubio-actually-wants-from

The Cuban-American Secretary of State, who built his Senate career on hawkish opposition to the Castro regime, has long been the most aggressive voice inside the administration on Latin America.

Should he be seeking a Vatican blessing for regime change in Havana, the historical record makes clear how badly that misreads Rome.

Catholic engagement with Cuba is no new project. It is a multi-pontificate priority that has produced concrete results….

 

Three pontiffs in seventeen years brought a clear message to the Cuban capital — the Cuban people belong to a global Catholic family that will not abandon them to anyone’s geopolitical chessboard.

Pope Leo XIV stands inside that lineage. He is also the first pope born in the United States, which makes the moral stakes of any American military adventure against Cuba especially acute for him. An American pope cannot stay silent while his own government involves itself in another foolish military quagmire.

This is what Rubio appears to misunderstand. The Vatican’s diplomatic posture toward Cuba is not a transactional asset that a Secretary of State can borrow for a season of regime change.

The Holy See has spent six decades on a commitment to dialogue, accompaniment, and the dignity of the Cuban people. Pope Leo XIV will not hand that legacy over to a White House that has shown open hostility to international law and to Catholic social teaching.

If Rubio arrives in Rome looking for cover, he will leave empty-handed. The Holy See has never been in the business of providing moral fig leaves for empire.

 

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After their meeting

MARCO RUBIO: We discussed, I mean, we’ve provided $6 million of humanitarian aid, U.S. humanitarian aid that was distributed by Caritas, the Catholic Church agency. We’re prepared to do more. In fact, we’ve offered the regime there $100 million of humanitarian aid that, unfortunately, so far, they have not agreed to distribute to help the people of Cuba.

So we did the hurricane relief, but we’re offering more. And it’s the regime that’s not accepting it. It’s the regime that’s standing in the way of it. So we discussed that, and we hope we can do it because we do want to help the people of Cuba who are being hurt by this incompetent regime that’s destroyed the country and the economy.

On Cuba Sanctions

REPORTER: Mr. Secretary, can you come back to Cuba a little bit? The United States, including yesterday, are ramping up sanctions against Cuba, the regime, and all that. With the exchange with the Pope, did you feel any convergence of views on that, and on the U.S. policy?

MARCO RUBIO: Let me clarify something for you. Our sanctions are against a company named Gaesa. This is a holding company set up by generals in Cuba that has generated billions of dollars of revenue, none of which benefits the Cuban people. Not one cent of it benefits the Cuban people.

You understand this, right? I don’t know if you know this. There’s the Cuban government, and they have a budget, and then there’s this private company that has more money than the government does. None of the money in that company goes to build a single road, a single bridge, provide a single grain of rice to a single Cuban, other than the people that are part of Gaesa.

So that’s what we’re sanctioning, is a company that basically is taking anything that makes money in Cuba and illegally putting it into the pockets of a few regime insiders. So that’s not sanctions on the Cuban people, because the Cuban people don’t benefit from Gaesa. It’s a sanction against this company that is stealing from the Cuban people to the benefit of a few. And we didn’t discuss those sanctions yesterday, but we imposed them yesterday, and we’re going to be doing more, by the way.

Transcript: Marco Rubio Remarks After Meeting Pope Leo – The Singju Post

https://singjupost.com/transcript-marco-rubio-remarks-after-meeting-pope-leo/

 

 

POLITICO Newsletter Header

By Daniella Cheslow and Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing

With help from Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman

Subscribe here | Email Daniella | Email Gigi

Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO and POPE LEO XIV may have found some common ground this week beyond ironing out a spat with the White House: humanitarian aid for Cuba.

Speaking to reporters today in Rome, Rubio said the U.S. had provided $6 million in aid to Cuba distributed by Caritas, the Catholic Church’s relief agency. He added that Washington had offered $100 million more that the government in Havana refused to distribute. “So we discussed that, and we hope we can do it because we do want to help the people of Cuba who are being hurt by this incompetent regime that’s destroyed the country and the economy,” Rubio said.

Leo didn’t directly address Cuba in public remarks, although the Holy See said in a statement that the pontiff and the top U.S. diplomat exchanged views on a host of issues, including “difficult humanitarian situations.”

 

The Vatican and Washington are talking as President DONALD TRUMP has threatened that “Cuba is next” for military action. Last week, he signed an executive order expanding sanctions authority on Havana. On Thursday, the State Department issued new sanctions on one Cuban national and two companies, as the U.S. maintains an energy blockade on the island nation.

It’s not clear whether the White House is aiming for regime change or economic reforms.

A White House official pointed NatSec Daily to Trump’s comments that Cuba is a failing country and that the U.S. “will be there to help them out” when the regime collapses.

But while the administration keeps up the pressure on Havana, Rubio’s goodwill tour may ease the path toward humanitarian help.

“This is important to show that we believe in the Cuban people,” said JUAN CRUZ, who handled Cuba on the National Security Council of the first Trump administration. Cruz described the aid as “ancillary” to resolving the broader U.S.-Cuba tension at hand, but said it was proof of concept for the Vatican’s role in the conversation — particularly at a time when other mediators like Canada had receded.

“The church is a proven guarantor and a trusted party on both sides for a long, long time,” he said.

There are signals that the U.S. is pulling back from imminent military action. Our own Kimberly Leonard and Nahal Toosi report the president’s focus appears to be on diplomacy, like pushing Cuba to privatize state-run businesses, allow in more foreign investment, increase internet access and commit to buying U.S. energy.

The Cuban embassy declined to comment. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister CARLOS F. DE COSSIO scoffed at Rubio who he said “lashes out against the Cuban people with new measures of collective punishment in its ruthless and genocidal war against Cuba.”

Cossio also disputed Rubio’s aid claims, saying the U.S. government had not delivered all of $3 million in aid it promised in October, and that “no one in Cuba” has opposed receiving another promised aid package of $6 million, “with due coordination.”

The State Department directed NatSec Daily to a February announcement of its $6 million aid package, which it said “the corrupt regime must simply permit.”

 

CHRISTOPHER HERNANDEZ-ROY, a 25-year veteran of the Organization of American States, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said accepting any aid from the U.S. was “a historic shift” even if the amount was small.

“The Trump administration is clearly tightening the screws as much as it can on the Cuban leadership to force some sort of negotiation that’s favorable to the U.S.,” Hernandez-Roy said. “The danger is in the calibration between putting enough pressure on that the regime feels that it must negotiate, versus creating a systemic collapse in the country.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/02/trump-cuba-policy-florida-00902686/

 Bruno Rodríguez

@BrunoRguezP

 

Aware that he needs lies to justify his criminal outrage against the Cuban people, the Secretary of State for the Advancement of the Cuban Armed Forces of the Republic of Cuba. #EEUU fabricates the fable of an alleged offer of aid valued at 100 million or more dollars, pretending to deceive the people of #Cuba and the Americans themselves. Where are they, what would you dedicate them to? What the anti-Cuban politician does know very well, as many people do, because it is public information, are the figures in billions of dollars that the U.S. economic war costs Cuba. He also knows the ruthless human damage of that war, the limitations in income, technology, food, fuel and medicine that it causes. It takes great cynicism to pronounce, without shame, a declaration of supposed help in such a mendacious way. Has he been sincere in the Holy See?

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Whither Cuba and the US?

While I am preparing my thoughts, some things to watch and read:


Carnegie Endowment

Aaron David Miller, Ricardo Zuniga, Michael Bustamente

   https://youtu.be/Hl1MbcjGItg

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Ulises Aquino, creator of Opera de la Calle, prompts a debate about Cuba's situation


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Hints of Change in Cuba's Economy

https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/03/symtons-of-change-in-cubas-economy.html

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Cuba pitches US economic roadmap as Trump pressures Havana

“So, the U.S. wants to be engaged in the economic transformation in Cuba? Let's do it," the top Cuban diplomat told USA TODAY.

Francesca Chambers   Rick Jervis

USA TODAY  March 31, 2026

https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/04/exclusive-cuba-pitches-us-economic.html


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Interview with former ambassador Jose Cabanas

https://orinocotribune.com/dialogue-with-the-us-is-possible-but-our-system-is-non-negotiable-says-jose-ramon-cabanas-interview/

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Apocalypse Now? Notes on intelligence and decorum

The most dangerous aspect of the current scenario, in my humble opinion, is not the low availability of fuel and its consequences, but rather the assumption that the imminent collapse of the system is a given.

https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/03/rafael-hernandez-on-current-crisis.html

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Reform and overcome the crisis, or not reform and collapse, that is the Cuban dilemma.

by Carlos Alzugaray Treto February 10, 2026

 
Sovereignty is not negotiable

La Joven Cuba

https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/02/carlos-alzugaray-cuban-dilemma-la-joven.html

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Mariela Castro on Political Implications of Ending the Embargo

"the presence of a sole party in Cuba came from the fight against colonialism, from Spain. Jose Martin had the merit of creating the Cuban revolutionary party in Cuba as a sole party, specifically to achieve independence and to avoid domination by the United States. So that's the line that we followed in Cuban history because conditions haven't changed.,,,

If Cuba weren't the subject of an economic and trade embargo, which has created so many problems for us, then Cuba, it wouldn't make sense to have a sole party, just one party. But it's when our sovereignty is threatened that we use this resource, which has truly worked in Cuban history."

Amanpour and Castro Aired June 04, 2012

https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ampr/date/2012-06-04/segment/01

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Cuba as an Obsessive Compulsive Disorder
Louis A. Pérez, Jr.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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My own thoughts

As hard as it may be for many Americans to imagine, President Trump is uniquely positioned to end the embargo as well as the oil blockade and designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

He can do that in conjunction with Cuba adapting to its needs the much admired Vietnamese creation of a market economy with socialist characteristics. The resulting flood of American and Cuban American visitors and investment as well as educational and cultural partnerships will help release the creative independence of the Cuban people in a natural and peaceful way. It will also inexorably diminish the role of Russia and China. If Mariela Castro was correct in her 2014 CNN interview, the end of the embargo can even mean the end of a one party system.

Embittered exiles should remember that her father Raul was responsible for Cubans regaining the right to buy and sell houses and cars and to own personal computers and cell phones. profoundly liberating actions that shaped current discourse. Entrenched Communist party bureaucrats and their anti-communist counterparts in Florida will see their material self-interest and power threatened but both have reached a dead end and may be open to a better future..

-- John McAuliff

more to come