Ulises Aquino Posts After Economic Reform Announcement

Ulises Aquino Guerra

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"You cost a lot"

The desperate struggle for survival of our people in the face of rising prices for basic goods is being used as a pretext to cap prices, conduct inspections, and blame private businesses for the price increases.

The great economist Pedro Monreal asks: At the highest levels of government, do any of you know anything about economics?

In my opinion, they don't know anything about economics, but they know very well how to do the math to maintain a bureaucratic, dysfunctional, and unproductive structure at the expense of the people's money and the taxpayers.

The people are not the most important thing for them; their bureaucratic structures are what matter most.

The economic disaster caused by all the economic mistakes they have constantly made is being covered up with inspectors, inspections, business closures, license revocations, etc., despite knowing the levels of corruption that accompany all these "tasks".

In contrast, state-run stores and businesses, which are sustained with public funds—yes, the people's money, because the state obtains its resources from the people's money—also sell at exorbitant prices to their own shareholders, who are the people. And the government doesn't inspect them, doesn't cap their prices, doesn't revoke their licenses. Why?

We play the same game with different rules for each of us. Where those who pay for the game are always the ones who suffer.

I've been fortunate enough to travel to many countries around the world—rich, even richer, and poor. I've lived in several. I've never seen inspectors in any business, and they operate much better than the ones here.

Because inspections are only carried out when there are complaints or irregular activities. Those here are inspected every month, because that's where the extra pay for the inspectors and those in the know comes from, and the economic actors pay these bribes on top of all their taxes not simply because they have the money, but because they risk losing their resources and invested capital.

If they truly want to recover the value of the Cuban peso (CUP), give value to productive work, and lower the fiscal deficit, the first thing they have to do is stimulate investment and lower tax rates for those who have taken on the responsibility of maintaining the supply of products to the population with their own resources, namely the self-employed and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

In addition to all import and shipping costs, fuel, etc., each private actor is penalized and taxed as follows:

- Regarding the hired staff

- Regarding salary

- About sales

- Regarding net income

- Regarding profits, if any.

After all these taxes, they also have to go out and find ways to exchange their money for foreign currency in order to restock.

Taxes represent almost 70% of business activity.

Obviously, the investor is obliged to recover their investment and generate profits, otherwise what would be the point, and therefore they are obliged to make the products more expensive.

So:

Why doesn't the State, which appropriates taxpayer money, in many cases without providing the services for which taxes are paid, eliminate, reduce, and stop penalizing private entities?

It is the only way for the purchasing power of professionals and the general public to recover and for the meager salaries they receive to help alleviate the current situation.

The State cannot be more important than the people, because the State is simply a group of politicians who live off the taxes and contributions of the entire Society, on which it imposes taxes that give meaning to salary money.

If the economists who have been invited haven't told you this, I'll tell you now.

No measure can work as long as the salary does not reflect the value of the effort.

"The greatest wealth of a nation is not gold, nor oil, nor diamonds; the wealth of a nation is its labor."

Adam Smith, three centuries ago.

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Ulises Aquino Guerra

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"The Masters and the Others"

After so many months and so much "talking" between the CIA, the Southern Command, the Naval Base, the 176 measures that "liberate" the economy, the Crab interview, the National Assembly and the silence of the Lambs, can anyone think that there is anyone who is truly interested in the reality of Cubans?

When they had money they didn't fix the thermoelectric plants, the water pipelines, or the communications; how will they be able to repair them in the deathly state of the nation?

Trump is interested in democracy and freedom, just as my friend the gardener is interested in astronomy, and just as the Cuban government is interested in making the necessary political changes that allow all citizens equally to aspire to political positions without needing to be members of the only party that has governed for seven decades.

Marco Rubio is interested in bringing back to power those who have already held many conventions in Miami where only people from there participate, without taking into account what we want from here.

It couldn't be clearer: the suffocation of an entire people is not done to improve their situation, but to change the masters.

Everyone is responsible and everyone is guilty of our situation.

Those who are aware that any solution with them will be impossible in less than ten years, even if the economy takes off at supersonic speed.

And to those who "generously" want to invest because they "love us so much" that they allow these things to happen.

That's how things are.

All we can do is breathe, while the usual victims still have some oxygen left, and while the usual bullies have fun with their fundamentalist orgies, deciding what to do with the commoners.

My comment:

Ulises eloquently and poetically observes that everyone is still operating from self-interest. Unfortunately that is the human condition. What breaks the cycle? Does Cuba have a Mandela? Or a Gorbachev? Could Trump for whatever transactional or legacy reasons take the one step that opens space for everything: end the embargo and other sanctions, erase the Platt Amendment by returning Guantanamo?

8/6/26

Ulises Aquino Guerra

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Author

Rosalba Seguí   My proposal has been public all along.

A popular consultation, so that through the ballot box this people can decide whether they want to continue with this political line or whether they prefer to include substantive changes.

Let the people, with their vote and their voice, bring about the changes that society and the economy require.

Not all Cubans are Party members, therefore they have the right to express their views, to criticize, and to raise their voices in favor of a better, prosperous, and sustainable life.

Respect for dissent, for the free expression of opinions.

My comment

Ulises Aquino Guerra Some would argue that such a consultation in the midst of embargo plus oil blockade would be too much affected by external pressures. What do you think about the end of sanctions followed in one or two years by the consultation? During that period an open debate must be permitted, an important concession by the Party.

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Ulises Aquino Guerra ·

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" Open wounds, too deep damage "

Reality speaks for itself, there is no need to add or add to it, it is so unnecessarily hard that not even the most imaginative fiction can overcome it.

Regardless of the obvious pressure that the United States government exerts on the government of Cuba, pressure that has condemned an entire people to even more cruel shortages, which lead them to the point of despair, the government of Cuba focuses its attention on the "defense" of territories, municipalities and areas.

However:

What will we defend in the event of U.S. aggression against Cuba?

In my opinion, that is the point.

Beyond all the measures that the U.S. administration has launched, against Officials and Institutions, against GAESA, Tourism, Public Health, etc.

Beyond the more than carried and brought Blockade, for many years the Cuban Party, State, Government has prostrated itself in power without listening or assuming its responsibility in the face of the demand for profound changes that a significant part of the Cuban people demands, turning dissent or civic protest into a crime, repressing with brute force and with long sentences those who exercise their right.

Serious economic problems existed before Trump's new term, and before the previous one.

The archived guidelines, the measures for Agriculture, Reorganization, Banking, Decree 349, etc, etc, etc, going through lemonade and guarapo and the Conjunctures have not resolved, nor will they solve the historical demands of those who still dare to question the management of this government and the good cause of this socioeconomic system.

Our people not only suffer from the measures that the United States imposes on Cuba, they suffer the consequences of very serious errors and historical burdens and debts in the capricious and omnifuscated management of their economy.

This deafness and institutional blindness can cause a state of extreme violence that will be impossible to reverse.

Not accepting it will bring horrible consequences for our lives and that of our children and grandchildren.

That things have never been good, you don't even need to ask anyone.

Sustaining this state of affairs is a circumstantial entelechy, which when the time comes will be deeply questioned and judged, and impossible to prove that it was worth so much sacrifice, lives cut short, miseries and calamities inflicted, to sustain a state of affairs, which as is evident, is only a Utopia of those who intend to walk even if the horizon line recedes at every step.

It is therefore necessary to consult the people. To know if they want the Utopia that has worked very well for them, or the Utopia of a different, dignified, free life without political discrimination, without exclusions for thinking differently and expressing it, without constant political controls, without having to give explanations for every act and exercising the natural right to act as free men in the eyes of a grateful Homeland.

It is time to decide how history will remember them.

7/25/64

My response:

John McAuliff

My friend Ulises writes eloquently about the failings on the Cuban side. It is hard to disentangle the failings on the US side. Each side created conditions that worsened the actions of the other. Early hostility from the US (Bay of Pigs, embargo) pushed or justified Fidel and the Party into authoritarianism, radical economics and foreign alignments to protect the elusive goal of cultural, economic and political sovereignty that had been compromised from the time of independence.

 Cuba's acceptance of the Platt Amendment, including the theft of Guantánamo, was similar to Ireland's acceptance of partition that led to bloody civil war and the more recent Troubles and a still unresolved border problem. Viet Nam's acceptance in Geneva in 1954 of "temporary division" forced by the US, Russia, China and France led to two decades of bloody US intervention followed by twenty years of diplomatic isolation and embargo. Ukraine suffers horrifically today to protect its sovereignty from Russia while Cuba for its own survival forgets principle and aligns with the hegemon.

 Both sides in the Cuba US impasse are afflicted by ideological self-righteousness compounded by arrogance and fear. To escape the trap requires imagination and courage on both sides. Cuba has taken a major step by adopting long overdue but significant market reforms and by making symbolic prisoner releases. Everything from the US side in the same time period has been negative, from rhetoric to additional sanctions. Secretary Rubio touts realistic gradualism at ASEAN but puts nothing on the table of what Cuba can gain.

Distrust dominates, typified by the anonymous State Department polemic that was a paranoid compliment to the prowess of Cuban intelligence. To overcome distrust, the two governments should immediately return to the initial year of the first Trump Administration. That could mean renewal of cruises and other forms of people to people travel and exchanges. In the same spirit, the US should enable Western Union and other remittances and the return to more relaxed banking processes. The US must also remove Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism as well as end the oil blockade and recent OFAC sanctions, including restrictions on American use and European management of all state owned hotels. Cuba should quickly implement announced economic reforms, release all 2021 protestors and permit greater diversity of opinion and civil society.

In a changed more positive atmosphere, serious negotiation can begin to end the embargo and facilitate US investment and explore Mariela Castro's thesis that as a result a single party system would no longer be necessary. https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/04/mariela-castro-on-political.html Absent the embargo, Cuba would not be the same country economically or politically.

Viet Nam offers lessons in economic reform and in turning bitter enemies into export markets, investors and comprehensive strategic partners. But perhaps the most relevant lesson for Cuba is how to manage a much larger and more powerful neighbor with a similar culture and centuries of hegemonic ambitions. Less than fifty years ago China destructively invaded a northern province of Viet Nam in defense of its Khmer Rouge allies. China today occupies Vietnamese territory, bars oil exploration and assaults fishermen in the South China Sea. Its actions against Viet Nam are worse than US treatment of Cuba so far, as terrible as it is, but despite that Viet Nam and China have close economic, diplomatic, military and Party relations. Of course the Vietnamese have 3000 years of practice.

Don't give up on a deal with Trump as difficult and unpredictable as he is. You have only had to deal with US imperiousness for 300 years. My paper for CIPI/ISRI on the history of US Viet Nam relations is here https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-path-to-us-viet-nam-normalization.html

A final thought of a collaborative way out. GAESA is often criticized for diverting resources to luxury hotel construction instead of to maintenance of the power system. Its decision was presumably based on a mistaken projection of the situation as a result of the Obama opening. I remember at that time the substantial shortage in Havana of good hotel rooms for tour groups. GAESA could not have anticipated the devastating impact on tourism of COVID followed by the maximum pressure restrictions of Bolton and Trump and the inadequate reversal by Biden. Rather than generating substantial national income, GAESA was left with many vacant rooms.

If US policy changes, Cuba's state owned hotels are an extremely valuable resource. To reclaim its investment, Cuba could sell or long lease buildings to the current European management companies that Trump has forced to withdraw and to US chains. Priority use of income could be to restore the national power system. Privatization of hotels was a major factor in the dramatic expansion of Viet Nam's tourism sector. The virtually empty Selection La Habana that towers over La Rampa would be a perfect investment for the Trump Corporation. Viet Nam sold land to the Trumps for a controversial golf resort near Ha Noi. Having the Trump name on the highest building in Havana would aggravate many Cubans and Americans but is a lesser cost than war.

Ulises Aquino Guerra

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I imagine this is fake news, right?

Negotiate? Who is this individual to negotiate on behalf of Cubans?

Who empowered this man to speak on my behalf and on behalf of Cubans?

If this is true, then the President of the Republic must resign, the narrative of the Revolution must be dismantled, and they must publicly acknowledge that we are living under a banana republic monarchy.

This undoubtedly requires urgent explanations, because silence is complicity with nepotism and dynastic imposition.

 Ulises Aquino Guerra  https://www.facebook.com/uaquinoguerra/posts/pfbid031bS1sVwJxtaDqpWf1Rv53P2r12cnbcXtiCZHXZat3cdMfCuGv2AjdWWSdpDFoiqsl

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And if it depended on us, why didn't they change it?

Many people, everyone told them for years, did they have to take us through this ordeal to realize it?

It's not enough. It's just one step. Many things are still needed for the above to happen.

What are the guarantees?

Will there be a separation of powers?

If there were so many obstacles left and you didn't remove them even knowing the consequences we have suffered, the most honorable, dignified and logical thing to do is to resign.

It is not about Socialism or Capitalism, it is about the people, about the Homeland lacerated by so many wounds.

It wasn't about pleasing Trump, or Rubio, it was about listening to us.

Nor is it about accepting that exile brings rules, or your rules; it is about everyone's right to create those rules and conditions.

It is very sad that they are more concerned about what they have called Socialism than about the people.

These changes depended on the signature of the one who truly holds power, and you approve the kind of socialism that suits you. Therefore, the project is incomplete because you need those same openings and freedoms that you now need—to think, to express yourself, and to live.

Therefore, it won't work properly; many things are still missing.

They started backwards.

Earlier posts by Ulises

https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/04/cubans-debate-their-reality-led-by.html