Marco Rubio's Future Path

 https://havanatimes.org/features/marco-rubios-rise-what-awaits-cuba-in-the-new-trump-era/#comment-329683

https://eltoque.com/en/marco-rubios-rise-what-awaits-cuba-in-the-new-trump-era

The real reason for Senator Rubio's nomination may have become clear when stories began appearing that Lara Trump, the daughter in law, was interested in being appointed for the temporary two year term his resignation will create.  That puts Governor DeSantis in a box.as he may have wanted to fill the slot with someone who would step aside for him to run in 2026. 

Rubio will have more freedom when he is no longer tied to Florida votes and campaign contributions.  Could he play the counterintuitive role with Cuba that John McCain did with Viet Nam?

 Rubio is smart enough to know that the embargo is a dead end, part vengeance and part fantasy.  As Secretary he could remove Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) , restore travel and obtain the freedom of July 2021 prisoners.   Negotiating the end of the embargo and return of Guantanamo will give space in practice for self-directed economic and eventually political liberalization. 

 In any case nothing would change things more dramatically in a Cuba under extreme economic and social stress than opening the legal door to US trade, investment and travel  Without the embargo to blame, Cuba's leaders will be under insurmountable peer and public pressure for reform.    

 Just as Viet Nam saw diminishing its role and influence in Cambodia as an acceptable cost for normalization with the US, Cuba may find full normalization with the US to have greater national benefit than prolonging a close alliance with an unpopular regime in Venezuela.

 It is worth noting that both the author of SSOT,  former Secretary Pompeo, and of maximum pressure, former National Security Advisor Bolton, range from unpopular to anathema with Donald Trump.  The influence of Mauricio Claver-Carone may also be constrained by his ouster in disgrace as President of the Interamerican Development Bank.

 Finally the surest way to increase Chinese and Russian influence in Cuba is to give it no other choice to survive and maintain is political sovereignty.  The US must take advantage of, not self-deny, the cultural, economic and political influence afforded by geography and history.

 We are asking the Biden Administration to use the Lame Duck period to set the stage for a new level of engagement by its successor.  https://sign.moveon.org/petitions/make-this-election-a-turning-point-on-cuba-and-venezuela

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Letter to Jose Cardenas

I read with interest in the Miami Herald: 

 Trump’s incoming team likely will “look for creative ways to exacerbate the chasm that is existing right now in Cuba between the people and the regime,” said Jose Cardenas...Rubio will “seek to regain some momentum and go on the offensive - but not in a provocative, ham-handed way,” Cardenas said

 This will be counter-intuitive for you and Sen. Rubio.  While I know you hope for a total collapse and regime change, the most creative way to exacerbate the chasm is to end the embargo.  The infusion of US trade, investment and tourism without political and economic preconditions will inherently lead to substantial change in a weakened system.    Release of 2021 and other prisoners and liberalization of social debate are reasonable expectations, but cannot be quid pro quo. 

 Just as Vietnam was prepared to sacrifice its interests in Cambodia for the greater economic and political benefit of normalization with the US, Cuba may reconsider the priority of its special relationship with Venezuela.

 Those in the Party and military who resist a real opening and try to create barriers to the Trojan Horse will be isolated and sectors favoring reform will be strengthened.  At that point serious negotiation and accommodation can take place between the two Cubas. 

 If the only choice the Trump Administration offers is surrender, the situation will be unchanged four years from now, except that China and Russia will be more deeply embedded.

 John McAuliff

Fund for Reconciliation and Development