Marco Rubio's Future Path

 https://havanatimes.org/features/marco-rubios-rise-what-awaits-cuba-in-the-new-trump-era/#comment-329683

https://eltoque.com/en/marco-rubios-rise-what-awaits-cuba-in-the-new-trump-era

The real reason for Senator Rubio's nomination may have become clear when stories began appearing that Lara Trump, the daughter in law, was interested in being appointed for the temporary two year term his resignation will create.  That puts Governor DeSantis in a box.as he may have wanted to fill the slot with someone who would step aside for him to run in 2026. 

Rubio will have more freedom when he is no longer tied to Florida votes and campaign contributions.  Could he play the counterintuitive role with Cuba that John McCain did with Viet Nam?

 Rubio is smart enough to know that the embargo is a dead end, part vengeance and part fantasy.  As Secretary he could remove Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) , restore travel and obtain the freedom of July 2021 prisoners.   Negotiating the end of the embargo and return of Guantanamo will give space in practice for self-directed economic and eventually political liberalization. 

 In any case nothing would change things more dramatically in a Cuba under extreme economic and social stress than opening the legal door to US trade, investment and travel  Without the embargo to blame, Cuba's leaders will be under insurmountable peer and public pressure for reform.    

 Just as Viet Nam saw diminishing its role and influence in Cambodia as an acceptable cost for normalization with the US, Cuba may find full normalization with the US to have greater national benefit than prolonging a close alliance with an unpopular regime in Venezuela.

 It is worth noting that both the author of SSOT,  former Secretary Pompeo, and of maximum pressure, former National Security Advisor Bolton, range from unpopular to anathema with Donald Trump.  The influence of Mauricio Claver-Carone may also be constrained by his ouster in disgrace as President of the Interamerican Development Bank.

 Finally the surest way to increase Chinese and Russian influence in Cuba is to give it no other choice to survive and maintain is political sovereignty.  The US must take advantage of, not self-deny, the cultural, economic and political influence afforded by geography and history.

 We are asking the Biden Administration to use the Lame Duck period to set the stage for a new level of engagement by its successor.  https://sign.moveon.org/petitions/make-this-election-a-turning-point-on-cuba-and-venezuela

************

Letter to Jose Cardenas

I read with interest in the Miami Herald: 

 Trump’s incoming team likely will “look for creative ways to exacerbate the chasm that is existing right now in Cuba between the people and the regime,” said Jose Cardenas...Rubio will “seek to regain some momentum and go on the offensive - but not in a provocative, ham-handed way,” Cardenas said

 This will be counter-intuitive for you and Sen. Rubio.  While I know you hope for a total collapse and regime change, the most creative way to exacerbate the chasm is to end the embargo.  The infusion of US trade, investment and tourism without political and economic preconditions will inherently lead to substantial change in a weakened system.    Release of 2021 and other prisoners and liberalization of social debate are reasonable expectations, but cannot be quid pro quo. 

 Just as Vietnam was prepared to sacrifice its interests in Cambodia for the greater economic and political benefit of normalization with the US, Cuba may reconsider the priority of its special relationship with Venezuela.

 Those in the Party and military who resist a real opening and try to create barriers to the Trojan Horse will be isolated and sectors favoring reform will be strengthened.  At that point serious negotiation and accommodation can take place between the two Cubas. 

 If the only choice the Trump Administration offers is surrender, the situation will be unchanged four years from now, except that China and Russia will be more deeply embedded.

 John McAuliff

Fund for Reconciliation and Development

Signers of Letter to President Biden Urging Action in Lame Duck Session

 https://sign.moveon.org/petitions/make-this-election-a-turning-point-on-cuba-and-venezuela

511 signers listed below as of November 13, 2024

Use the Lame Duck transition as a turning point on Cuba and Venezuela

Dear President Biden,

You have an opportunity during your final months in office to fully undo the maximum pressure campaign against Cuba of the first Trump Administration that has led to to widespread hardship and motivated mass migration.  

Cuban government policies contribute to these problems, but only the US has the power to change the context.

President Biden,  before you leave office you can make history and clear the decks by fully reengaging with Cuba.    President Trump should face the challenge of giving priority to re-imposing his restrictions rather than coasting with them in place.

• remove Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism

• enable more normal travel by allowing cruises, use of hotels, independent people to people trips and performances

• resuspend Title III of the Helms-Burton law to prevent nuisance suits that interfere with US investment and business in Cuba

• respect again* the humanitarian role of Cuban medical teams that serve in other countries

I hope that Cuba will respond by undoing the internal impact of Trump's first term to prepare for his second mandate.  Prisoners can be released who  protested living conditions worsened by US maximum pressure.  Cuba ought to undertake greater reform of economic and social policies as desired by its people and contribute to finding a political solution for Venezuela.

Why is this important?

During his first term, President Trump left in place for nearly two years most of the Obama opening with Cuba.  A key actor in creating maximum pressure against Cuba and Venezuela was the now hostile and alienated former National Security Advisor John Bolton.**  

For more than sixty years US and Cuban national interests and human well-being have been paralyzed by a conflict over sovereignty, self-determination and freedom with two centuries old roots.***   The historic transformation begun by Barack Obama and Raul Castro was virtually destroyed by Donald Trump in the second half of his first term and only partially rebuilt by Joe Biden.

By President Biden restoring mutual engagement, he can rebuild trust and open the door for the second Trump Administration to act positively.  Ending all travel restrictions (including on normal tourism), dismantling the UN condemned unilateral embargo and returning the Guantanamo base and prison that was obtained as a condition for independence, the US can give Cuba space and resources to find more creative national solutions to economic, social and political problems. 

It can also create the possibility of US and Cuban cooperation with efforts by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to find a peaceful solution to the political conflict in Venezuela.


Name                         Zip Code

John McAuliff 11901

Mary Day Kent 19119

Louis A. Pérez 27514

George Pappas 60618-5602

Andrew Berman 55416

Robert Greene 97217

Colleen Curtis 98229

Susan Young-Fleming 11218

Lee Schlenker 20010

Joaquin Geaga 94702

John Rosenbaum 34109

Sarah Grey 47250

Don Thompson 2139

Michael Locker 10025

Dosier Hammond 08542-3148

Thomas Ehrlich 95065

Judith Sánchez Ruíz 13359

Debbie Wilson 10469

Sharon Moulton 1053

Susan Peterson 52333

Peter Couming 2124

Joelle Deloison 94609

Jack Malinowski 19119

Joan Budd 10570

ry martinez 90039

Virginia Traxler 50312

Mike Wolfson 2130

Bill Montross 20817

Sherry Rogers Frost 17320

Elena Nickerson 8648

NANCY TATE 18077

Emanuel Kopstein 94920

Sandra Dunn 19004

Cary Kopstein 94920

Nicholas Long 2837

Cecilia Gaston 10035

Ricardo Pérez 6226

paul adriaanse 94121

MARK PHILLIPS 32808

Lee Liddle 93720

Jeremy Landau 87557

Kristin Loken 20860

Sheyla Paz Hicks 37212

Mark Rasenicck 60025

Alan Papscun 1262

Margrit Diehl 13224

Richard Loveless 86336

Charles Costigan 34711

brantly womack 22911

Barbara Webster 7042

Ethel MacDonald 59801

Leanne Mella 10065

John Haffner 70119

Linda Elzer 11961

Lisa Valanti 15241

Beverly Burke 37129

Lea Aschkenas 94949

Ruben Sandoval 95409

Maritza Giberga 95831-1516

Ken Sanford 92029

Holly Stuart 84102

Pedro Schuck 34243

James York 45601

Nanette Crist 34243

Lydia Valanti 15216

Rosemary Woods 1103

Jennifer Desmond 80503

Irene Kaufman 32082

William Williams 37716

Terry Brackett 34239

OZZ TORRESBUSTILLO 28152

Ramon Perez 33029

Joel Schwartz 10301

Terry Rixse 22311

Ollie Davidson 20815

Douglas endicott 34237

Marla Hoffman 11040

Laurie Rhoads 17033

JAVIER O CABAN 2129

James Matthews 17038

Wilfred Labiosa 926

Patrick Comer 80303

Thomas Mondell 16117

John Dayter 12308

Oswald Mondejar 2446

Gloria Sellers 11201

david leneman 90008

Deborah Mondell 16117

Theresa Owens 29466-8857

Kelly T 8070

Howard Kramer 33705

Indira Leneman 90008

Benjamin Olson 98349

Nancy Kramer 33705

Rebecca Berlant 11215

Robert Racine 85201-5304

Linda Elzer 11961

Gabriel Ruiz 20906

Joan Boyle 10017

Jeffrey Elkner 22204

Jay Garcia 19073

Conner Gorry 55427

Emily Chafa 50131

Jeannie DeMarinis 80455

Daniel Burke 1053

Olivia McCann 80205

Richard Lopez 80455

Nancy Greene 80221

Nancy Commins 80027

Doug Ray 80302

Lawrence Carlson 80304

John A. Sand 85755

Rita Barouch 94805-1021

Mark Ginsburg 95062

Rita Kungel 80305

Jayne Rynar 24471

Maureen Hung 32909

Carmen Rumbaut 78666

Luanne Buchanan 28805

Lisa Sparaco 92102

Jay Jones 15212

Holly Ackerman 1060

Yosi (Jo) McIntire 32080

Mark Rasenick 60612

Soledad Pagliuca 32080

Burton Steck 60618

Aaron Singer 33322

Steve Warren 34243-1602

Anola Small 94606

Melanie Ziegler 45056

Erik Schnabel 94603

peter and peggy yackel 55446

Maurice Rehm 94062

Robin Taylor 34637

Rae Kasdan 22980

Dawn Gable 20770

William Cecil 5663

Vannetta Perry, Ed.D. 87832

Susan Greene 94558

Judith Ackerman 10024

Patricia Storace 6385

Marcelle Gimborn 34711

Tico Capote 38117

Dorothy Anderson 2191

Kate Hennessey 80027

Elizabeth (Lisa) Arceneaux 78666

Norma Barbacci 11226

Janet DeCosmo 32301

Armando Vilaseca 5464

Fred Lavy 22802-4822

Carlos Boueres 32303

Marvin Weber 34224

Magaly Spector 33135

Yves Chabal 33135

Enrique Sacerio-Garí 19010

Alan Ditmore 28753-9061

John Stanfield 53517

Miriam and Mike Kurland 01096-9771

Francine Brown 10037

Joaquin Casamayor 77062

Allie Wood 32903

jamilah b 7029

Alexis Marona 98662

Allen Mort 94124

Nana Royer 32080

Lorenzo Canizares 33196

Judy Hopkins 61326

Sandy Jones 63116

Kim kaeser 33919

Anna Knox 98117

Maria Frances benitez 91403

Norman Pearlmutter 11713

Edgar Polanco 2128

Christine Myles 97404

Susan Chandler-Reed 81401

Kim Withers 78387

Marcy Campos 20912

Kathryn Trimper 22306

Andrew Child 1720

Steven W 33903

Joe Volk 19348

Sally Benson 92262

Christian Appy 1002

Doug Hostetter 01027-1089

Prescott Grey 87801-4645

Barbara Sheehy 59823

Lorenzo Antonio Del curto 87832

Brenda Wilkinson 87801

MIN KANTROWITZ 87104

Tina Odenbaugh 33037

Erin O’Brien 60641

Lisa Baum 52245

Daniel Perry 87801

Bonnie Scharnick 95531

Shara Allison-Jones 23513

Timothy Bridges 33716

Shirley Wilkins 33919

Diane Johnston 32080

Donalea Loewen 80538

Dennis Witting 34224

Cristina Sanchez 70056

Michael Walsh 92646

Gwen Senio 52358-8510

Jean-Anne Marshall 98281

Donald Nappi 33442

James McDonald 10128

Anne Zarba 75014

Allan Oliver 98661

elisabeth heefner 55403

Eloise Linger 11725

Wilfred Labiosa 926

Seil Roman 901

John Cabrera 91775

Diane Keefauver 97205

Sylvia Alvarez 34639

Eileen Del Pino 91775

Deborah Niebuhr 55987

Michael Sanders 59047

Gretchen Musicant 55410

Diane Stradling 3801

Rosemarie Sawdon 24060-6258

Felix Kury 94015

Jonathan McGrain 18954

Carol Izzo 43065

Nadia Sindi 97401

cyn Roberts 47448

Benita Lubic 20015

Michael Martin 47401

David Elder 19348

John Ehrlich 10016

Delores Terry 23227

Scott Shaughnessy 19971

Mary Drobny 90814

Steven Black 66611

Chuck Kieffer 48103

Ann Segraves 47404

Stusrt Ashman 87506

Micheline Fleurant 23219

A Michael Marzolla 93103

GILBERT CARRASCO 92648-4863

Michael Utech 98006

Frances Perkins 2119

Juliane Richter 4177

Julie Cardenas 28655

Jorge Publio Chacón 7052

William Hendricks 93001

Merrie Felder 39739

Norman Savitt 11201

Kip May 47404

Jeanne Koopman 2139

Richard Barnes 4107

Eric Grossman 7087

Rosemary Ganci 34491

Cecilia Grossman 7087

Tor Jensen 60091

Joli Ginsburg 94117

Feranndo Bretos 27701

David Funkhouser 19144

Don and Roberta Thurstin Timmerman 53233

clyde winter 53024

Gonzalo Lopez 91910-1804

Melinda Ulloa 20009-1575

Victor Ulloa 20009

Perry Olds 28754

Leon Q Allen 60475

Frank Marshalek PhD MPA 47404

Deevon Quirolo 34601

Eric Peterson 30331

Terry Provance 20015

Daniel Primerano 95560

Katie Calligan 17603

Eric Nelson 55987

Cecilia Ogasawara 80526

thomas cronin 19004

Anna Adams 78044

Stephanie Rugoff 10025

Cynthia Munley 24153

sandra baird 5402

Frank Munley 24153

Bob and Kathy Redig 55987

Cherie Hales 55987

Jo Anne Murad 5489

Sue Fuhrmann 21921

Terri Cohen 23059

Brian Singer-Towns 55987

Charles Jacobsen 94599

Robet Michaels 32712

Donna Carswell 19006

Danielle Cazier 83201

Gordon L Magill 32301

Thomas Popper 10576

Carol Flores 52245

David Greenberg 1340

Kasey Picayo 10001

Robert McFarland 33020

Ben Gritzewsky 97243

Paul De Castro 91016

Harold Cardenas Lema 20018

Julie Hutchison 44107

Kristin Kyllingstad 1965

Annie Escalona 98026

Alexandra Kyllingstad 1965

Richard Dawson 90026

Susan Worgaftik 1301

Frank Pratka 77098

Richard Elrauch 11218

Sandra Soca Lozano 33617

Diana Battle 94134

Yolanda McAllister 90221

Maddy Oden 94612

Ferd Wulkan 1351

Jesse Drew 95618

Martha Kransdorf 48103

Joslin Fritz 89523

Richard M Walden 90036

David Langford 98359

Albert A Fox 33624

Norine Fernandez 93401

Eric Beaumont 53211-2706

Estelle Schneider 94610

Stephanie Burgos 20910

Paul Lauter 7605

Diane Messmer 98103

Rich Weller 19810

Timmorie Freeman 94121

Kevin Washington 7631

Kathryn Dame 60068

Lyon Leifer 60062

Anna García 92106

Sarah Eggleston 20027

Margaret Cerullo 2652

Rebecca Cramer 55406

Curt Bender 94608

Amanda Perez Leder 11050

Amy Alexander 91361

Mary Ann Clawson 01060-4250

Susie Sinclair-Smith 21409

Eli Arroyo 33544

Martha Rothman 11201

Nathan Torrence 60626

Nina Menendez 94602

Doug Selwyn 1301

Carolyn Brandy 19012

Sofia Erlien-Cerullo 10451

Miryam Rumbaut 75036

Linda L Forsberg 55105

Beatriz Bustamante 33138

Donna Nawalkowsky 19148

Jose Garcia 60563

Susan Bram 10014

Phyllis Ewen 2139

Randy Poindexter 70125

Victor Cross 94707-1304

Harold Jacobs 92270

Deno De Ciantis 15216

Andrew Augustine 62010

James Cline 92130

Elena Barge 22802

Warren M. Gold 94941

Beverley Citron 30064

Kwabena Lumumba 30331

Jennifer Spelman 87505

Ramon Bueno 2143

Miranda Beidler 17501

Barbara Schulman 11231

Yethel Sussman 11970-0345

Christopher Baker 92234

Eli Ours 52247

Harry Targ 47906

Diane Stradling 3801

Randolph Shannon 15066

Pamela Ann Martin 19002

Jenny goltz 60022-1517

Henry Terrell 77009

Daniel Sanders 33765

Carl Seese 46923

Hilary Davidson 95035

Marla Chung 90043

Irene Hardisty 50312

Kayleen Dowell 83714

Ted Dreier 97219

Rusty Nelson 99223

Dale Mitchell 2130

Peter Robbins 14009

Catherina Krabill 46516

Cynthia ROTHSCHILD 11231

Margaret Summers 20024

Courtney Childs 97333

Mary Ann Fastook 10282

Stephanie Jones 32308

Nancy Axelrod 20009

Amy Ziegler 63130

Barbara Kennedy 55406

Sue Staehli 97225

Maria Longenecker 17603

Alicia Claypool 50315-1845

Rochelle Kaskowitz 63130

Aaeron Robb 21239-1905

Ron Krupp 5403

Deborah Goldman 98122

Les Margosian 97304

Joey Merrifield 37727

John Chadwick 98226

Elisabeth Vassas 19901

Kristen Schlaud 48334

Kurt Thurmaier 60115

Jenna Edmond 98106

Carol Steele 92679

Nova Dahline 98168-2618

Robert Joe Lee 08690-1906

Mary Perez 47235

zia parker 80301

Gail Sullivan 2130

Lesley McQuarrie 98106

Lauirie Rugenstein 80302

Cynthia DiDonato 2904

Stanley Kaster 11228

Leslie Lomas 80303-3831

Lucymarie Ruth 94610

Christa Erwin 98144

Benjamin Treuhaft 10003

Nathan Barge 22802

Louise Amyot 1301

Marc LeMaire 54665

James Taylor III 80210-4506

Julie Buffington Rizner 10960

Carol Marshall 54521

Bruce Radtke 98226-6449

Susan Mitchell 20815

Claire Jones 98144

VIOLA BRUMBAUGH 98146

Lara Wasner 48076

Larry Lawton 98520

Amy Draizen 94618

Roy Romano 48076

Emily Tracy 81212

Patricia Pedersen 98112

Constancia Romilly 10516

Karen Madden 97213-1212

Linda Helland 95482

Karen Brown 48221

Anne Taffel 11778

Tom Waldorf 59718

Janice Gutman 98342

Donald Davis 15106

Pascale Angulo-Deiros 71000

Erin Bell 48073

Shardé Chapman 48033

Patricia Longair 80526

Mary Ann White 30145

Rosa Baty 87059

Laurie Lemmlie-Leung 85263

Susan Karraker 81122

John Chapman 78759

William Moore 4401

Marie Gadjev 48237

Peggy Parkinson 54022

Michael Erisman 47802

Peter Weisberg 94804

Daniel Erkkila 55808

richard snyder 28403

ALICIA POUSADA 00976-2331

Kristin Ford 1915

Kai Lopez 33030

Henry Marshall 54521

Mirella Glasberg 34239

Hollyn Miller 17602

Lisa Froman 94705

Belmont Freeman 10025

Marla Gundle 98122

Edward Goldman 11205

Rebecca Ferber 98122

Nathaniel Lehman 24060

Kelly Johnson 48180

Cynthia Grayson 98275

Alinda Wasner 48025

Rena Leib 2139

Jacqueline Pokorney 55108

Alison Tudury 94066-1252

Laura Byres 32206

Enrique Arias Jorge 33134

Chris Ray 10005

Emilie Olson 98407-5603

Mrs.Kenneth Stein 32086

Christine Weeber 80422

Priscilla Felia 11356

Steven Katz 40508

Marianne Short 44618

M. Phyllis Cunningham 10025

John Preiskel 96160

Naomi Kratzer 22802

Frederick Royce 32038

Ruben Chupp 46526

David Parker 97214

Parker Lindner 98103

Kristal Parks 80003

Sam Brier 97202

Neyla Carpio 10700

Stephanie Self 98146

Ralph Quinonez 90013

Susan Metz 11238

Joshua Stucky 8540

Hillary Jasper Rose 98106

Bruce Miller 6019

Mariana Gaston 11217

Riogers Guilarte 77346

Flora Gonzalez 2906

Gary Prevost 55412

MB V 98118

Werner Wothke 20906

Judith Parkinson 95685

Resources:

* Trump's Venezuela and Cuba policy in focus in Bolton speech in Florida

By Roberta Rampton, Reuters   October 31, 2018    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-venezuela-cuba-policy-focus-bolton-speech-florida-155235539.html

Current economic problems in Cuba
https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2024/08/analysis-of-economy-government-reversal.html

** Then Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power announces US abstention on the embargo resolution
https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2021/05/ambassador-samantha-powers-address-to.html

*** The underlying historical problem between the US and Cuba
https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2019/05/louis-perez-cuba-as-obsessive.html

Links between Irish and Cuban nationalism in 19th century New York  
tinyurl.com/CubaIrelandNY