The Venezuela Debate

Comment Posted by the New York Times

John McAuliff September 9, 2024

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/08/world/americas/edmundo-gonzalez-venezuela-opposition-candidate.html

The Maduro government reminds us of what the US could have become but for the principled courage of Vice President Pence.

Our Supreme Court would have been as compliant with power as Venezuela's. Maduro's government and its international allies justify their case with alternative realities as insulated as MAGA's, and probably also believe them. González flight shows we are heading for another painful dead-end on Venezuela. Each side holds to its truth but only one side has the power to implement it. Isolation and sanctions will not achieve any more than the last time, even though this opposition case is far more credible than Trump's Guaidó myth. Brazil and Colombia have opened a path by calling for new better supervised elections. If that were accompanied by a credible non-partisan National Electoral Commission as well as legal and security guarantees for the losing side and their foreign allies, a more secure and mutually respected result could be achieved. Both Maduro and the opposition reject a new election, whether from pride or uncertainty of the result. The opposition will accede to US and European advice. Maduro is more likely to accept if Cuba joins with its friends in Brazil and Colombia. Cuba does not control Venezuela but it has deep relationships and respect throughout the country, including with the military. The US can encourage Cuban helpfulness by fully restoring Obama's policies and promising to end the embargo and return Guantanamo.

Letter to White House

August 16, 2024

Dear President Biden and Vice President Harris,

Congratulations for the uplifting spirit of your remarks yesterday.   Our country is very fortunate for your current and future leadership and an effective transition between them.

I am writing about two matters of deep humanitarian concern.

Yesterday Mr. President you expressed support for the proposal by Presidents Lula and Petro that there be new better monitored elections in Venezuela.  This is the best most democratic idea I have heard to get Venezuela and the world out of a dead-end conflict that can only result in further suffering, including the risk of civil war.  Its non-partisan value is demonstrated by immediate rejection from both Maduro and Machado who will and must insist their side won.

Last night I wrote to a high-ranking person in Cuba's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

"President Biden and President Diaz-Canel should rise above the small mindedness of their national security bureaucracies and support Lula and Petro's call for new monitored elections in Venezuela.   A repetition of six years ago but with a more discredited government in Caracas is not healthy for anyone."

It would be remarkable and effective if both the US and Cuba, allied with opposing sides in Venezuela, advocated a fresh start.  I believe Cuba would be encouraged to take such a step if it saw pre-Trump reengagement from the US, including removal from the SSOT list, resuspension of Title III and restoration of full travel (cruises, hotel use, independent people to people, performances).

Regarding the ongoing human tragedy of Gaza, I take seriously your support for a ceasefire and return of hostages.  However, you are being played by Netanyahu and Israeli extremists.  It is time to say initially privately and then publicly that the US will provide no more shipments of military aid to Israel until, and only as long as, there is a ceasefire in Gaza.

Regards,

John McAuliff

Fund for Reconciliation and Development

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8/16/24

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/16/menendez-ends-independent-senate-campaign/

Bob Menendez departure frees up President Biden to keep his campaign promises to restore Obama's engagement with Cuba.

Too much of the Trump/Bolton/Pompeo maximum pressure policies remain in place with dire human consequences.  Without further delay, in the spirit of his partnership with Obama, President Biden should

 1)  remove Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism

 2)  enable more normal travel by allowing cruises, use of hotels, independent people to people travel and performances

 3)  suspend again Title III of the Helms-Burton law to prevent nuisance suits interfering with US investment and business with Cuba

 4)  respect the humanitarian impact of Cuban medical teams serving in other countries

 It is reasonable to expect that if the US undoes the economic and political damage of Trump in bilateral relations, Cuba will undo the damage of the Trump era to its socio-political structures, including release of protestors of the conditions exacerbated by US policies.

 Renewal of trust can open the door to ending the widely criticized unilateral embargo and to undoing the unequal treaty that gave us the Guantanamo prison and base.  The US and Cuba may even be able to find common ground in a solution to the Venezuela problem, such as supporting the call by President Lula and Petro for new elections.

--John McAuliff

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8/15/24

US, Brazil float new Venezuela election despite government, opposition rebuffs

By Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-new-election-could-be-solution-venezuela-crisis-2024-08-15/

White House walks back Biden comment on renewed Venezuelan election

Biden was asked as he left the White House to board his Marine One helicopter for an afternoon event in Maryland whether he supported new elections in Venezuela, and he responded “I do.”....

A spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council said Biden intended to speak to the absurdity of Venezuelan President Maduro failing to come clean after claiming victory in the July 28 vote, with data suggesting that opposition candidate Edmundo González prevailed.

“It is abundantly clear that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes,” White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett added in a message posted to social media. “We call for the will of the people to be respected and for discussions to begin on a transition back to democratic norms.”  

  https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/white-house-walks-back-biden-comment-on-renewed-venezuelan-election-124081600056_1.html

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8/12/24

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/08/10/us-policy-venezuela/

The State Department is correct in having Brazil, Colombia and Mexico take the lead. The most reasonable external demand at this point is that local voting records be fully and truly published. 

 

Until that happens, we have one self-interested party vs. another with countries taking sides based on their own ideology and political alignments.  The opposition and the US press may be right but they don't have the ability to force Venezuelan authorities to back down.

 

What would lead various interests in Venezuela to accept the public embarrassment of a different vote count?  No doubt prior negotiation of power sharing and legal protections for current leaders will help.

 

Another factor is the private and public attitude of Cuba which has deep and long standing political, emotional and economic ties to the Chavistas and influence throughout the country.   Its current public position is rigidly supportive of Maduro's claimed victory but if he lied to them, Cuban intelligence must know that.  That makes interesting a critical analysis by a retired Cuban state security agent still living in Cuba.   https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2024/08/a-cubans-critique-of-official-support.html

 

If Cuba joined with its friends in Colombia, Brazil and Mexico in order to overcome all doubt about the election results, that could tip the balance.  However, at a minimum Cuba must receive guarantees that its medical teams will be able to remain and that it will continue to receive Venezuelan oil at a discount.

There should also be comparable action from the US toward Cuba.  If Havana is prepared to risk its special relationship with Caracas, Washington must be prepared to fundamentally change its relations with Cuba.  In the short term that means full restoration of the Obama engagement with Cuba (SSOT, travel, Title III);  in the longer term, end of the embargo and return of Guantanamo.

 

The solution to Venezuela is a rational regional reconfiguration.

--John McAuliff

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Lula on Venezuela: Maduro's Government is “disgusting” and has “an authoritarian tendency”

Friday, August 16th 2024 - 21:32 UTC  Merco Press

Lula expressed doubts about the validity of the recent presidential elections in Venezuela

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has voiced strong concerns about the political situation in Venezuela, describing the current regime under Nicolás Maduro as “very unpleasant, with an authoritarian tendency.” However, Lula stopped short of labeling it a “dictatorship,” underscoring the need for transparency in the electoral process.

In an interview with Radio Gaúcha on Friday, Lula expressed doubts about the validity of the recent presidential elections in Venezuela, held on July 28, which have been mired in controversy. “The opposition says it won, [Nicolás] Maduro says he won, and I can only recognize that the process was democratic if they present the evidence,” Lula stated, emphasizing the need for the publication of the official electoral records.

The election results, which the National Electoral Council (CNE) declared in favor of Maduro with 50.20% of the votes against 44.20% for opposition candidate Edmundo González, have sparked widespread protests and accusations of fraud from the opposition. Lula’s comments come as both the Venezuelan government and the opposition have rejected his proposal to hold new elections if the results are not verifiable. “They did not like the idea,” Lula acknowledged, noting that the resolution of Venezuela's political crisis “depends solely and exclusively on the behavior of Venezuelans.”

Both the opposition and Maduro Thursday rejected Lula's suggestion that fresh elections could be held as a way out of the current crisis stemming from the July 28 polls when the CNE announced his victory but the opposition cried “fraud” since no documents were produced to back up that result.

Lula reiterated that the Brazilian government’s recognition of the election results hinges on verifying the accuracy of the CNE’s numbers. “It is necessary to know if the numbers are true,” he stressed, reflecting broader concerns within the international community about the legitimacy of the electoral process in Venezuela.

Lula suggests new elections for Venezuela; Machado opposes

Thursday, August 15th 2024 - 19:57 UTC  Merco Press

Maduro knows he owes an explanation to society and to the world, Lula said

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Thursday suggested Venezuela should hold fresh elections to solve the controversy stemming from the July 28 polls the National Electoral Council (CNE) said were won by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro without showing any evidence, while the opposition maintains Edmundo González Urrutia triumphed by a landslide.

“He knows he owes an explanation to society and to the world,” Lula said after calling Maduro to produce the minutes to a “reliable” body. However, disenfranchised opposition leader María Corina Machado argued that Lula's proposal would be tantamount to turning the back on the Venezuelan people who have already spoken.

Lula insisted he “still does not recognize” Maduro's victory and suggested the regime should organize new elections. ”Maduro still has six months left in office. He is the president regardless of the elections. If he has good sense, he could try to make a call to the people of Venezuela, maybe even call for an electoral program, establish criteria for the participation of all candidates (...), and let observers from all over the world go to watch the elections,“ Lula explained in a radio interview.

The opposition cried ”fraud“ after July 28. So far at least 25 people have been killed in the ensuing protests, 192 others were injured and over 2,400 have been arrested.

The CNE has not yet published the details of each voting table, citing a ”cyber-terrorist attack“ which the Carter Center and other observers dismiss.

Lula also admitted that Brazil's ties with Venezuela were deteriorating in the current scenario: ”I have had relations with Venezuela since I took office in 2002, I had many relations with [Hugo] Chávez [...]. And this relationship has deteriorated because the political situation there is deteriorating in Venezuela,“ he stressed.

Maduro ruled out any negotiations with Machado, who also rejected Lula's idea which she claimed was ”disrespectful“ while pledging to fight until the Chavist leader recognized ”that he lost.“ Lula's plan was reportedly endorsed by Colombian President Gustavo Petro and these two countries plus Mexico try to position themselves as mediators between Chavismo and the opposition.

”It is going to a second election, if he does not like the results, is it going to a third? A fourth? A fifth until Maduro likes the results?,“ Machado argued.

”To disregard what happened on July 28 is a lack of respect to Venezuelans who have given everything and who expressed popular sovereignty. Sovereignty is respected, and the elections have already taken place,” she added ahead of Aug. 17's ecumenical protest.

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Additional Resources

Jorge Castañeda: Cuban Government is Absent from Negotiations on the Venezuelan Crisis

Former Mexican Foreign Minister: Havana is the only government that really has influence over Maduro and the Venezuelan Armed Forces

https://confidencial.digital/english/jorge-castaneda-the-government-of-cuba-is-absent-from-negotiations-on-the-venezuelan-crisis/

'So many similarities'

How Venezuela’s history can inform its present-day election crisis

By Jim Glade and Isabella Lapadula, Al Jazeera  4 Sep 2024

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2024/9/4/how-venezuelas-recent-history-can-inform-its-present-day-election-crisis

"Who Are the Venezuelan Opposition? Leonardo Flores & Alejandro Velasco Debate Election Aftermath"     Democracy Now  August 13, 2024

https://www.democracynow.org/2024/8/13/venezuela_post_election_crisis_maduro_gonzalez?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=94050e81-9f39-49ad-aaf4-5a43adae2b88

Interview with Claudio Katz: “With or without the minutes [vote tallies], the United States wants Venezuela’s oil”  

August 11, 2024 by Indymedia Workers

https://argentina.indymedia.org/2024/08/11/entrevista-a-claudio-katz-con-o-sin-actas-estados-unidos-quiere-el-petroleo-de-venezuela/

A Deal That Could Save Venezuela

By Francisco Rodríguez   New York Times   Aug. 7, 2024

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/opinion/venezuela-deal-political-crisis.html?te=1&nl=your-places%3A-global-update&emc=edit_ypgu_20240807

"As Tension over Venezuelan Election Escalates, the Left Debates Who Won Contested Vote"    Democracy Now  August 05, 2024   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/8/5/venezuela_maduro_gonzalez_election_crisis

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Petition to President Biden, Presidential Candidate Harris

    https://sign.moveon.org/petitions/make-this-election-a-turning-point-on-cuba-and-venezuela