International Crisis Group on Role of the UN
3. Facilitating reconciliation in Venezuela. The
struggle for control of Venezuela created drama in the Security Council in the
first half of this year, as U.S. officials including Vice President Mike Pence
came to New York to press for President Nicolás Maduro’s ouster. Maduro’s
allies, notably Russia, responded with strident statements in his defence. Yet
the UN could still have a role in helping both sides find a way out of an
impasse that is contributing to a humanitarian catastrophe and massive refugee
flows and could have regional spillover effects.
By the middle of the year – with neither Maduro nor his rival
for the presidency, Juan Guaidó, able to secure victory – UN debates over the
crisis lost energy. The foreign backers of both sides appear to have concluded
that there was little to gain from public disputes in New York. Some Guaidó
supporters, including European governments, also hope that Secretary-General
Guterres could play a more impartial role in resolving the crisis if the
Security Council can avoid further fights on the issue.
So far, Guterres and UN officials in Venezuela have been wary
about engaging in the crisis too publicly. The Secretary-General has held back
from any effort to assist in Caracas until both sides clearly want him to do
so, and has taken a back seat to the on-again, off-again negotiations between
the government and opposition currently being facilitated by Norway; the Trump
administration’s view that the UN should not be involved certainly has played a
role.
While some commentators and human rights organisations have
called for the Secretary-General to approach the situation less cautiously, the
UN has not been entirely silent or absent. After her visit to Caracas in
June, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet released a
damning report listing major violations by the Maduro government. UN agencies
in Venezuela have also prepared a plan for greatly increased humanitarian aid
to the country, with the aim of supporting 2.6 million people in urgent need.
If the two sides [in Venezuela] reach a compromise along
the lines under discussion, the UN may be well placed to observe elections and
assist in building the institutions required for good governance.
The conditions for further substantive UN engagement in
Venezuela could at some point ripen. Though a counterproductive round of new
U.S. sanctions soured the mood in August, Crisis Group discussions with
elements in both the Maduro and Guaidó camps suggest a compromise around early,
credible, internationally monitored elections could be possible – with the
caveat that the pro-government electoral commission will need to be changed,
National Assembly powers restored, some U.S. sanctions lifted and institutional
guarantees introduced to escape the winner-take-all dynamic of past polls.
If the two sides reach a compromise along the lines under
discussion, the UN may be well placed to observe elections and assist in
building the institutions required for good governance. It may also be able to
help make a political settlement stick. A special representative of the
Secretary-General, backed by a political mission, could manage these roles.
Either the Security Council or UN General Assembly could give a mandate for
this work, though a Security Council resolution backed by all the P5 would
carry the most weight. Coming together behind a Security Council resolution
would also be an elegant way for the U.S. and Russia, in particular, to step
back from their earlier clashes over Venezuela, lest the situation hurt their
relations further.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/002-seven-opportunities-un-2019-2020?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/john-bolton-trump-foreign-policyBolton’s Out. Here’s How That Could Affect Trump’s Foreign Policy
ByVENEZUELA
The failure so far of U.S. efforts to unseat Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela helped undermine Bolton’s standing with Trump. After his departure, a “reconfiguration” of U.S. policies toward Caracas, including Trump’s support of opposition leader Juan Guaido, is in the cards, according to a Brazilian diplomat familiar with the discussions. Elliott Abrams, the U.S. special representative for Venezuela, insisted Wednesday that Bolton’s departure will have no impact on policy in Washington, where he said support for opposition leader Juan Guaido “is truly bipartisan.”
Yet Trump made clear on Wednesday that he didn’t like all the advice he got from Bolton on Venezuela, saying, “I thought he was way out of line and I think I’ve been proven to be right.”
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