The indispensable Cuba Central weekly news blast has become increasingly pessimistic about what the Trump administration is going to do on Cuba policy. The content of the opening editorial on March 31 was particularly disconcerting, predicting a major roll-back this month. http://democracyinamericas.org/cuba-central-news-brief-waiting-godont/
I still remain somewhat optimistic. Rather than foretelling large scale restoration of restrictions, Sen. Rubio's use of "strategically" may mean that only some kind of symbolic move is in the works. Rubio wants to be able to claim he has achieved something from his new relationship with an increasingly weakened Trump so he needs to lay the basis for characterizing a minimal step as part of a larger plan.
The offer by Mario Diaz-Ballart of a favorable vote on the health care bill in return for Trump following through on his hard line campaign rhetoric strikes me as an act of desperation to salvage what his hard line faction had persuaded themselves was a done deal.
I am also not clear how going to the right on Cuba benefits the White House at this point. The Economist article does not make that case. If Trump is looking for dramatic Executive actions that reassert his authority, why would he choose Cuba where he will be going against public opinion, a majority of the Senate, agricultural interests and the airlines while not exciting anyone except the hardest core in Miami who did not do him any favors electorally or financially?
Three larger factors may enter the picture:
1) Secretary Tillerson's distancing from the annual human rights report and removal of human rights conditions from arms sales and the warm welcome by Trump for the brutally repressive Egyptian President undermine attacking Cuba on that front, even though consistency is not a hallmark of US foreign policy.
2) The diminution of the State Department and USAID budget may include Cuba democracy programs since Trump has expressed opposition to such interventions in principle.
3) If the Russians do have a large influence in the present, as well as in the past, would their allies in the White House support damage to Cuba, particularly if it means retarding US economic engagement that will offset China?
On the other side of the argument is the person Trump named to be in charge of Cuba, his former counsel Jason Greenblatt who seemed to be pro-normalization after he traveled on Trump's behalf to Cuba for business reasons. I also heard when I was in Cuba that some visiting US business people had advised not to worry too much because Trump's biggest donor in Florida was the pro-engagement Fanjuls (see the contribution list below of what I could find on line).
--John McAuliff (4/5/17)
FANJUL, SR., JOSE F.FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION/EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTWEST PALM BEACHFL3340107/07/2016 $2,700 Donald J. Trump
FANJUL, SR., JOSE F.FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION/EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTWEST PALM BEACHFL3340107/07/2016 $2,700 Donald J. Trump
FANJUL, ALEXANDER L. MR.PALM BEACHFL33480FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION NRCC09/16/2016 $7500.00 201703029050590998
FANJUL, JOSEWEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION NRCC09/07/2016 $7500.00 201703029050590998
FANJUL, JOSE SR.WEST PALM BEACHFL33401EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTFLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATIONREPUBLICAN PARTY OF MINNESOTA - FEDERAL10/27/2016 $4761.90 201612089040206457
FANJUL, JOSE SR.WEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION TRUMP VICTORY07/07/2016 $100000.00 201702149049353500
FANJUL, JOSE SR.WEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION TRUMP VICTORY07/27/2016 $100000.00 201702149049353500
FANJUL, JOSE F MRWEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATIONEXECUTIVE/OWNERNRSC10/20/2016 $7500.00 20161208020068
I still remain somewhat optimistic. Rather than foretelling large scale restoration of restrictions, Sen. Rubio's use of "strategically" may mean that only some kind of symbolic move is in the works. Rubio wants to be able to claim he has achieved something from his new relationship with an increasingly weakened Trump so he needs to lay the basis for characterizing a minimal step as part of a larger plan.
The offer by Mario Diaz-Ballart of a favorable vote on the health care bill in return for Trump following through on his hard line campaign rhetoric strikes me as an act of desperation to salvage what his hard line faction had persuaded themselves was a done deal.
I am also not clear how going to the right on Cuba benefits the White House at this point. The Economist article does not make that case. If Trump is looking for dramatic Executive actions that reassert his authority, why would he choose Cuba where he will be going against public opinion, a majority of the Senate, agricultural interests and the airlines while not exciting anyone except the hardest core in Miami who did not do him any favors electorally or financially?
Three larger factors may enter the picture:
1) Secretary Tillerson's distancing from the annual human rights report and removal of human rights conditions from arms sales and the warm welcome by Trump for the brutally repressive Egyptian President undermine attacking Cuba on that front, even though consistency is not a hallmark of US foreign policy.
2) The diminution of the State Department and USAID budget may include Cuba democracy programs since Trump has expressed opposition to such interventions in principle.
3) If the Russians do have a large influence in the present, as well as in the past, would their allies in the White House support damage to Cuba, particularly if it means retarding US economic engagement that will offset China?
On the other side of the argument is the person Trump named to be in charge of Cuba, his former counsel Jason Greenblatt who seemed to be pro-normalization after he traveled on Trump's behalf to Cuba for business reasons. I also heard when I was in Cuba that some visiting US business people had advised not to worry too much because Trump's biggest donor in Florida was the pro-engagement Fanjuls (see the contribution list below of what I could find on line).
--John McAuliff (4/5/17)
FANJUL, SR., JOSE F.FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION/EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTWEST PALM BEACHFL3340107/07/2016 $2,700 Donald J. Trump
FANJUL, SR., JOSE F.FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION/EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTWEST PALM BEACHFL3340107/07/2016 $2,700 Donald J. Trump
FANJUL, ALEXANDER L. MR.PALM BEACHFL33480FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION NRCC09/16/2016 $7500.00 201703029050590998
FANJUL, JOSEWEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION NRCC09/07/2016 $7500.00 201703029050590998
FANJUL, JOSE SR.WEST PALM BEACHFL33401EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENTFLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATIONREPUBLICAN PARTY OF MINNESOTA - FEDERAL10/27/2016 $4761.90 201612089040206457
FANJUL, JOSE SR.WEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION TRUMP VICTORY07/07/2016 $100000.00 201702149049353500
FANJUL, JOSE SR.WEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATION TRUMP VICTORY07/27/2016 $100000.00 201702149049353500
FANJUL, JOSE F MRWEST PALM BEACHFL33401FLORIDA CRYSTALS CORPORATIONEXECUTIVE/OWNERNRSC10/20/2016 $7500.00 20161208020068
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