https://havanatimes.org/features/marco-rubios-rise-what-awaits-cuba-in-the-new-trump-era/#comment-329683
https://eltoque.com/en/marco-rubios-rise-what-awaits-cuba-in-the-new-trump-era
The real reason for Senator Rubio's nomination may have
become clear when stories began appearing that Lara Trump, the daughter in law,
was interested in being appointed for the temporary two year term his
resignation will create. That puts
Governor DeSantis in a box.as he may have wanted to fill the slot with someone
who would step aside for him to run in 2026.
Rubio will have more freedom when he is no longer tied to
Florida votes and campaign contributions.
Could he play the counterintuitive role with Cuba that John McCain did
with Viet Nam?
Rubio is smart enough to know that the embargo is a dead
end, part vengeance and part fantasy. As
Secretary he could remove Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism
(SSOT) , restore travel and obtain the freedom of July 2021 prisoners. Negotiating the end of the embargo and
return of Guantanamo will give space in practice for self-directed economic and
eventually political liberalization.
In any case nothing would change things more dramatically in
a Cuba under extreme economic and social stress than opening the legal door to
US trade, investment and travel Without
the embargo to blame, Cuba's leaders will be under insurmountable peer and
public pressure for reform.
Just as Viet Nam saw diminishing its role and influence in
Cambodia as an acceptable cost for normalization with the US, Cuba may find
full normalization with the US to have greater national benefit than prolonging
a close alliance with an unpopular regime in Venezuela.
It is worth noting that both the author of SSOT, former Secretary Pompeo, and of maximum
pressure, former National Security Advisor Bolton, range from unpopular to
anathema with Donald Trump. The influence
of Mauricio Claver-Carone may also be constrained by his ouster in disgrace as
President of the Interamerican Development Bank.
Finally the surest way to increase Chinese and Russian
influence in Cuba is to give it no other choice to survive and maintain is
political sovereignty. The US must take
advantage of, not self-deny, the cultural, economic and political influence
afforded by geography and history.
We are asking the Biden Administration to use the Lame Duck
period to set the stage for a new level of engagement by its successor. https://sign.moveon.org/petitions/make-this-election-a-turning-point-on-cuba-and-venezuela
