U.S. Squeezes Cuba Even as It Searches for a New
Regime Leader
By Tyler Pager, Julian E. Barnes and Frances Robles
Aug.
7, 2026 New York Times
During more than 25 years, I have visited Cuba 65 times on
behalf of normal mutually respectful relations, based largely on Quaker
inspired similar post war reconciliation work with Viet Nam, Laos and Cambodia.
I
am intrigued by the article about “regime alteration” because it parallels a
theme a zoom group of engaged (but not solidarity) Cuba experts have been
wrestling with for at least three months. Most of the group is skeptical,
but a few of us believe President Trump is more interested in achieving a
legacy worthy peace deal than a military conquest. On the US side that
has to include the historic event of ending the embargo, which Obama couldn’t
and Trump may be uniquely capable of. One question was whether the Cubans
could compromise enough to make a deal, while maintaining self-respect /
sovereignty.
That
question was answered when Cuba announced on its own schedule
Vietnamese style market reforms, greater private sector openings and radically different international economic
relationships. The Cubans explicitly used the intense US economic
pressure to overcome resistance within the Party and bureaucracy to long standing advice from
their own economists and primary foreign allies. All of my Cuban friends
and other sources who are normally critics of the government think this is
finally real, a sea change—and irreversible even if some want to try. The
problem is that Cuba’s sincerity can’t be tested without a big change in US
policy as it affects US and other foreign traders, international financial
institutions and investors.
What
is the Administration referring to?
Cuba has announced major economic changes, allowing
in more private enterprise, but the measures appear to have fallen short of what
the Trump administration has demanded.
I
may be too cynical but I fear that they are pushing for special if not monopoly
access for US investors and companies. The recent rounds of sanctions forcing
out the European hotel chains that built modern mass tourism in Cuba smells a
bit like creating conditions for substitution of US chains. We are aware
of the Trump friend/donor who is buying 55% of the Canadian company Sherritt International after it was forced out
of its investments in nickel, cobalt and oil production.
Scan
the 559 on line comments to this article.
They are overwhelmingly critical of US punishment policies and many are
convinced Trump is motivated by greed for hotels, casinos and beach front
property. If the Vietnamese can bend their laws to enable a Trump golf
resort outside of Ha Noi, it is not impossible for the Cubans to make a similar
accommodation.
My guess is that the level of distrust between our countries and self-righteousness among leaders on both sides is the underlying obstacle. A trust building formula is to return to the first year of the first term of Trump before Mauricio Claver-Carone and the now despised John Bolton created “maximum pressure”. That should include freedom for those who protested its consequences in 2021. (See my responses here to increasingly critical posts by Ulises Aquino, a widely respected cultural leader and creator of Opera de la Calle https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/07/ulises-aquino-post-economic-reform.html)
Assuming
there is principle involved, that could mean the US is insisting on commitment
to the opening of a political process as in Venezuela. A solution is to test a prediction to CNN in 2012 by Mariella Castro, Raul's daughter and a pioneer in recognition of gay rights, that ending the embargo could mean a single party system will no longer
be necessary. https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2026/04/mariela-castro-on-political.html
Absent the embargo, Cuba would not be the same country
economically or politically. I have always wondered why dissidents in
Cuba and among exiles haven’t been leaders of demands to end the embargo which
served so well Fidel’s messianic nationalism. Are they dominated by revenge or by fantasies of
regaining property and power? Nothing will change Cuba faster and more profoundly than opening the door to unrestricted US trade, investment, tourism, university collaboration, cultural exchange, sports, etc\.
Few in our discussions think post Iran that the Administration
will risk military action against Cuba. Most believe Trump and his
advisers will count on continued public suffering to produce collapse.
Finally, missing in this article and most other
coverage of the current state of US conflict with Cuba is any recognition of the
legal and moral damage to our country. In effect we are in the same position
as Putin with Ukraine, our historical assumptions of dominance versus threat are
superior to our neighbors' rights to follow their own paths. A unilateral
unprovoked economic blockade of oil and apparently other shipments of essential
goods is an act of war creating untold human suffering. From my
Peace Corps service in Peru and other international experience, I have no doubt
how much our reputation is being destroyed in Latin America, Africa,
Asia and Europe. The closest neo-colonial parallel I see is our support
for Pinochet's coup and brutal rule in Chile. Support for military dictatorships in Argentina and Brazil and the invasions of Panama and Grenada also come to mind.
John McAuliff
Fund for Reconciliation and Development
Riverhead, New York
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