Re-engagement Straws in the Wind

Notably absent from both Tracy Wilkinson's article and Secretary of State Blinken's response to an Italian reporter is any time frame. 

Read positively, Wilkinson is reporting that unlimited remittances and travel will be restored.  One wonders what "more robust relationship" and   "more difficult matters" refer to:  the embargo, payment for nationalized property, Guantanamo, cooperation on humanitarian/medical projects,  suspension of "democracy" funding / lessening of repression?

This is a very different perspective than provided by Karen DeYoung in the Washington Post, presumably talking to some of the same sources.  

Oops.  This article was originally published in February but reappeared on line in July.

The Los Angeles Times

July 1, 2021

       

Biden begins new thaw with Cuba

Traveling and sending funds will resume, but Obama-era openness will take more time.

By Tracy Wilkinson

 

WASHINGTON — President Obama took historic steps to thaw the hostile Cold War-era relationship with the island nation of Cuba, 120 miles south of Miami. President Trump did his best to put everything back on ice.

 

Now the Biden administration says it will lift some of Trump’s restrictions on business and travel between the U.S. and Cuba, and renew diplomatic talks.

 

But President Biden’s initial actions will disappoint advocates longing for the more robust relationship that was emerging in the Obama years.

 

Although he promised during the campaign to aggressively reverse Trump’s Cuba policy, Biden will roll out his plans more slowly than some of his advisors had hoped.

 

He faces stiff resistance in Congress from members opposed to detente with Cuba, including from one of the Senate’s most powerful Democrats. At the same time, Cuba’s behavior has become more controversial amid repression of dissidents and support for Venezuela. And Trump left numerous obstacles, such as formally declaring Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism, which takes time and a bundle of red tape to reverse.

 

“There was never going to be Obama Redux,” said Cuba expert John Kavulich, head of an economic institute that for decades has focused on Cuba.

The Biden government will remove harsh Trump restrictions that most directly harmed civilian Cubans, administration officials said. First of those are the limits on the amount of remittances that Cuban Americans can send to their relatives on the island. The administration will also restore some of the wiring services, including Western Union, that are used to transmit the money and that the previous government blocked. The money is a lifeline for many Cubans.

 

Biden’s team also intends to allow more travel between the countries, people familiar with the plans said. U.S.-origin flights to various Cuban cities were opened under Obama, along with a large cruise ship itinerary. But those mostly shut down under Trump. Obama’s reasoning was that the exposure of Cubans to more Westerners would plant the seeds of democratization; Trump’s people argued that a lot of the dollars spent by tourists and other visitors ended up in the hands of the Cuban military.

Biden’s first steps will be taken as initial gestures while more difficult matters are debated.

 

“Politically he is going to keep it limited for now,” said John Caulfield, former head of the U.S. mission in Havana and a specialist in U.S.-Cuba policy. Caulfield said Biden needs to get a sense of the political will in Havana.

 

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has said he welcomes dialogue with Washington, but without preconditions.

 

Biden may also rebuild the staff at the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana, which became a skeleton crew under Trump, and resume issuing visas to Cuban nationals.

 

Since Biden assumed office, his aides have become more circumspect about plans for Cuba, repeating publicly that the policy is “under review.”

 

However, Juan Gonzalez, an Obama administration alum who is now head of Western Hemisphere affairs for Biden’s National Security Council, last week confirmed the broad strokes of the new policy.

 

Biden’s “commitment on Cuba is to lift the limitations on remittances and make possible the travel of Americans to the island,” Gonzalez said in Spanish to Spanish-language news channel Univision.

 

The previous administration “only penalized Cuban Americans and the Cuban people in the middle of a pandemic” by making it difficult for them to receive money from relatives, and “did nothing to try to advance a democratic future in Cuba,” Gonzalez said.

 

Two other people who have participated in talks about Cuba with members of the administration confirmed the steps. The State Department declined to comment.

Obama’s opening with Cuba, announced in 2014, came in his second term, when he no longer had to worry about reelection, and after the critical and traditionally Republican Florida vote in the 2012 contest had moved into his camp.

 

He reestablished the U.S. Embassy in Havana, made the first trip there of an American president in 90 years, and oversaw the revival of numerous bilateral operations, like the interdiction of drug traffickers.

 

Biden, by contrast, must confront the issue early in his first term, when not only are Florida Republicans including Sen. Marco Rubio arrayed against him, but Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, a hawk on Cuba, has ascended to the powerful chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

 

Nine days before leaving office, Trump Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo created extra obstacles that would trip up the Biden administration in its efforts to return to rapprochement with Cuba. Pompeo and Trump put Cuba on the list of state “sponsors of terrorism” with only three other countries: Iran, North Korea and Syria.

 

Most experts say the label is purely political. Normally the designation comes after an extensive review by the State Department and then consultation with Congress. That did not happen.

 

Politically it puts Biden in the tricky position of having to affirmatively recertify that Cuba is not sponsoring terrorism, and Havana’s support for Colombia’s leftist guerrillas and leftist Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will complicate that. Cuba and Venezuela exchange intelligence officers, doctors, oil and possibly weapons.

 

While there is wide confidence among lawmakers and academics that Biden will fulfill some of his Cuba campaign promises, there is also concern the administration will stumble if it begins to demand that Cuba take reciprocal steps, such as freeing dissidents from jail, to “earn” U.S. concessions. It’s a tactic that has never worked.

 

“There will be a temptation to demand reciprocity and concessions from the Cubans in return,” said Peter Kornbluh, coauthor of “Back Channel to Cuba,” a book recounting Obama’s secret negotiations. “The history of negotiations with Cuba demonstrates that the quid pro quo approach is a nonstarter, and a recipe for policy failure.”

 

Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) has lobbied both Biden and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken on reestablishing full ties with Cuba, making similar warnings.

 

Richard Feinberg, a veteran of the Clinton White House and now an international political economy professor at UC San Diego, also cautioned against “overdemanding,” saying the Biden team is “overestimating U.S. leverage worldwide.”

 

“The administration is looking for positive developments on the island to wrap their announcements around,” Feinberg said.

 

Earlier this month, Díaz-Canel, struggling with a moribund economy, vastly expanded the list of small businesses that Cubans may operate, one of the most important steps Havana has taken in allowing a form of private enterprise.

 

The most ardent Cuba advocates in Congress and elsewhere are reviving a campaign to end the 59-year-old U.S. embargo, initiated by President Kennedy to isolate the island’s communist leadership. Obama, along with experts, historians and activists, have long considered the embargo a failure — it never unseated revolutionary leader Fidel Castro or his successors — and it remains perhaps the sorest point Cubans cite in the troubled relationship with the United States.

 

It can only be lifted by Congress, where Rubio and like-minded fellow Republicans would work to block such action.

 

“Our nation’s embargo on Cuba is an artifact from the 1960s,” Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said as he introduced a bill this month to repeal the sanctions. “To continue this outdated, harmful policy of isolation would be a failure of American leadership.”

United States Department of State
Washington DC
29 June 2021

Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Lucia Duraccio of RAI TG1

QUESTION: The last question is about Cuba. A few days ago, United States voted against the UN resolution to end the Cuba embargo. It has been the – if I remember well – 29th time —

SECRETARY BLINKEN: Mm-hmm.

QUESTION: — while 184 countries voted yes. Why Cuba is still the enemy? I mean, the dialogue begun by Former President Obama is over forever?

SECRETARY BLINKEN: We’re in the midst of reviewing our Cuba policy. We’ve – President Biden’s been in office for about six months. There have been a lot of things on our plate. He focused immediately on revitalizing our relationships with our partners and allies, like Italy, re-engaging in multilateral institutions – rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, re-engaging with the World Health Organization, convening a summit of leaders on climate. And then, of course, we’ve had the G7, which has made very important progress with all of our countries working together. On COVID, a billion vaccines for the world, working to – on climate, to prevent the financing of coal-fired plants, the biggest contributor to global emissions. A very strong and important agenda, both bilaterally with our closest partners and multilaterally in these international organizations.

And so there’s only so much you can do in six months’ time, so one of the things that we’re looking very hard at right now is the policy toward Cuba. It’s under review. I can tell you that as a matter of basic principle, the – any policy we pursue would have democracy and human rights at its heart, and we would want to make sure that we’re doing whatever we can to empower the Cuban people to decide their own future.

QUESTION: I know human rights are important also about Cuba, but you talk to Saudi Arabia, to Turkey. Maybe dialogue is necessary to improve the condition of people, Cuban people?

SECRETARY BLINKEN: We’ve never resisted dialogue anywhere. The question is: What is the overall policy? And that’s what we’re reviewing. We’ve done that in a number of areas. We spent some months reviewing our policy toward North Korea, for example, and announced that policy just a few weeks ago. We’re doing the same on Cuba.