Post-election Pressure on Biden-Harris
Not surprisingly, there is debate within the Biden-Harris transition team on how quickly to implement pledges to restore the Obama travel policy on Cuba. In part this is in response to pressure coming from those who opposed the previous opening but supported Biden over Trump.
- a top Biden foreign policy adviser told Reuters on condition of anonymity last week that the Democrat would "reverse the decisions that are separating families, limitations on family travel and remittances" if he won the White House.
- But the adviser added that while the incoming president wants to "empower"
the Cuban people, "we can't turn back the clock to January
2017." https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-08/cubas-president-acknowledges-bidens-us-election-win
The
most explicit negativity came from John Kavulich a long term critic of Obama's
policies who asserted within days of the election that, for reasons of domestic
politics, relations, "will not soon return to the United States-Republic of Cuba
bilateral commercial, economic, and political landscape that existed prior to 20
January 2017". He predicted continued restrictions on remittances and severe
limits on travel by non Cuban-Americans as well as prohibitions on cruises and
use of hotels and state owned restaurants.
Such published reports
led to a level of passivity within the industry. Travel Agent Central
reported
- After assuming office in 2017, the Trump Administration undid President
Barack Obama’s moves to restore U.S.-Cuba relations, including the move to
open up travel as far as the law allowed (which ASTA supported). A top Biden foreign policy adviser reported that Biden would
reverse these decisions by Trump, but it wouldn’t happen overnight.
“Given all that will be on President-elect Biden’s plate next year, we expect action on Cuba to come slowly,” ASTA
says.
Juan Triana is a prominent reform oriented economist in Havana. Surprisingly in an On Cuba article he seems to have been totally taken in by Kavulich -- unless he is trying to overcome any tendency in the Party to avoid making necessary changes because the door is reopening to the US. https://oncubanews.com/en/opinion/columns/counterbalance/being-able-is-not-wanting-wanting-is-not-being-able/#google_vignette
On the other hand, at least two members of the Biden
"landing team" for the State Department were deeply involved in the Obama policy
of engagement. And Robert Malley, President of the International Crisis Group,
a prominent foreign policy adviser to President-elect Biden, wrote in a New York
Times Op Ed
- "A few words in Mr. Biden’s inaugural speech about his commitment to
multilateralism, diplomacy and human rights would set the right tone. On Nov. 4,
the Trump administration officially withdrew the United States from the Paris
climate agreement, but Mr. Biden can easily rejoin it on his first day in
office, as he has vowed to do. He can prevent our withdrawal from the World
Health Organization, which doesn’t take effect until July 2021. The new president can also restore President Barack Obama’s
Cuba policy, reaffirm the United States’ commitment to NATO, and
replace Mr. Trump’s partisan and often unqualified appointees. But there is only so much low-hanging fruit...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/opinion/biden-trump-foreign-policy.html
This is not determinative, but a just retired member
of Malley's board is Jake Sullivan who will become National Security Adviser.
Malley and the new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have been friends since
high school in Paris.
The priority Biden and Harris give to
fulfilling their pledges on Cuba will be partially based on their own
convictions and partially based on how they expect it to play in their first
days in office . They know there will be loud criticism from old-guard Cuban
Americans and allies in Congress when they take action. In addition to the
strong national poll data favoring restoration of Obama's policies, they need to
hear from people who elected them about how important immediate action is for
the recovery of the US travel industry and for the well being of Cuban
providers.
*******************
Remittances
An AP story which appeared in the Washington Post only quoted anti-engagement sources on Biden's position on remittances.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/cubans-receive-last-of-remittances-via-western-union/2020/11/23/15ea1110-2de2-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html
I made this comment to the Post and to AP:
- The Trump-Rubio Administration has delivered its final vengeful act against Cuban Americans who are more loyal to their families than to hard line exile politicians.
- John Kavulich and Andy Gomez are either guilty of wishful ideological thinking or of seeking to create disinformation to disquiet pro-engagement majorities in the US and Cuba.
- The third expert source cited by AP, Manuel Orozco, is also suspect when he predicts "that it would take a minimum of six months" to restore remittances. His employer Creative Associates International is infamous for the ZunZuneo regime change project undertaken covertly in Cuba with democracy funding from USAID.
- https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/08/04/another-usaid-cuba-spy-program-exposed
- In less than two months the Biden Administration will begin as promised during the campaign to restore the Obama policies of engagement with Cuba. High on their list will be unlimited remittances through established channels and general licenses for travel to Havana and regional cities, and, when covid permits, cruises.
- As Robert Malley, Biden adviser and head of the International Crisis Group, wrote in a November 11th Op Ed in the New York Times, "The new president can also restore President Barack Obama's Cuba policy, reaffirm the United States' commitment to NATO, and replace Mr. Trump's partisan and often unqualified appointees", all "low hanging fruit".
- AP should seek more reliable sources about the intentions of the Biden administration.
*******************
Reasons to move quickly on Cuba
- 1) the private sector of casas, paladares, drivers, artists, handicraft makers, etc. in Cuba is desperate
- 2) they will benefit most from independent travelers and group tours organized by independent Cuba specialist agencies that will be quickest off the mark of legal reopening
- 3) it will reinforce the space that seems to be opening within economic reforms for Cuban SMEs in the travel sector
- 4) the big multi-destination tour operators and the cruise lines, university faculty-led programs and cultural exchanges require lots of lead time to get up to speed; the earlier they know legal travel is back, the sooner they can start packaging and promoting it, necessarily months in advance
- 5) it is a high visibility and doable symbol of Biden's determination to undo Trump's damage and a morale booster for his supporters even if they are not interested in Cuba per se (his higher priorities will be harder to accomplish)
- 6) public opinion is more strongly in favor of restoration of normalized travel than about the complicated higher priority issues
- 7) anti-Trump steps restoring the rights of Cuban Americans (remittances, regional flights, visas for reunions and immigration) are equally popular in the community despite voting patterns
- 8) announcing both steps affecting Cuban Americans and the rest of us at the same time shows that Biden does not distinguish between two kinds of Americans (national interest rather than special interest)
- 9) delay will create distrust in Cuba, enabling Party hard liners to confirm the nonsense from Kavulich, that the Biden Administration wants to releverage steps already taken and exploit their suffering, shortages and economic reforms for additional political goals; trust is essential for solving the mysterious maladies and other bilateral differences
- 10) quickly Undoing the Damage creates momentum and space to Build Back Better by the summer (Leahy and McGovern travel bills, comparable Ag legislation)
*******************
The Russian Dimension
The Cubans went from enthusiastic friendship and multi-level political, economic and personal relationships to deep disillusion when the Soviet Union collapsed. The incredible hardship of the Special Period in the 90s was caused by the end of Soviet/COMECON subsidies. There was also ideological dissonance between Cuban socialism and Russian capitalism. The super-ugly Russian embassy in Havana was not very occupied and with some acrimony the Russians closed down the Lourdes electronic spying center targeted at the US in 2001.
Putin visited Cuba in July 2014 and Russia
canceled 90 percent of the island's $35 billion debt.
His visit was
overshadowed by the potential relationship with the US that began with the
Obama-Castro announcement of normalization of relations on December 17, 2014.
US tourism accelerated as a growing sector of both the state and private economy
and a process began that could lead to the erosion and repeal of the embargo.
The first big reversal under Trump was the effective shutdown of the
US embassy and consulate in Havana in September 2017, ostensibly because of
sonic attacks that began in late 2016. All of the US theories of cause have
fallen apart. The most credible case for cause was made by medical examinations
and scientific investigation of Canadians who suffered similar medical
problems. Canadian specialists at Dalhousie University identified chemical nuerotoxins as the cause of
all of their problems. You can find the scientific information here.
Their theory of the source was extra insecticide sprayed by the Canadians to protect against zika. This politically convenient theory is not sufficient. Jeff Delaurentis, the head of the US embassy at the time, said the US did not undertake similar spraying. An alternative theory is topical application in homes and hotel rooms where symptoms were experienced.
Given
the Russian proclivity to using chemical weapons applied to surfaces, they are an obvious focus of suspicion, including by Senator Rubio although without this explanation of means. The consequence of
the withdrawal of US intelligence operatives (the initial target) and diplomats
certainly benefited the interests that Putin had begun to rekindle before the
Obama-Castro breakthrough.
However, Trump's embrace of Rubio hard
line exile politics did not have real teeth until John Bolton and Mauricio
Claver-Carone were in the NSC in 2018-19. During the Guido shadow war with
Venezuela, threats of US military intervention were made and it was suggested
that Havana was their real target. The Cuban response was to move closer to the
Russians, the only game in town as a geopolitical balance. That culminated in
President Diaz-Canel's October 2019 visit to Moscow. As AP wrote:
- Russian-Cuban ties are still far from the Cold War era of near-total Cuban
dependence on the Soviet bloc, which saw the island as a forward operating base
in the Americas then largely abandoned it in the 1990s. But observers of Cuban
and Russian foreign policy say there is a significant warming between the former
partners, prompted in part by the Trump administration’s reversal of President
Barack Obama’s opening to Cuba.
- Cuba and Russia are also heavily supporting Venezuelan President Nicolás
Maduro, whom the U.S. has been trying to overthrow.
- Speaking to Putin, Díaz-Canel said his government considers developing ties
with Russia its top priority and hailed a recent visit by Russian Prime Minister
Dmitry Medvedev. “We observe the growing role of Russia that resists the U.S.
attempts at domination,” he added.
- https://apnews.com/article/d2e58fa79c2f406c9c126c4cd46f4ef8
The
picture that accompanies the AP story is of a glum Diaz-Canel and a happy
Putin.
Notable is that the Diaz-Canel welcomed Biden's victory early
in the process. Has Putin even now?
Perhaps as a side note, Fiona
Hill observed during her impeachment deposition that the Russians were
suggesting they would recognize US Monroe Doctrine prerogatives over Venezuela
and the Western Hemisphere if we extended the same authority to them over
Ukraine. I assume the Cubans noticed. https://cubapeopletopeople.blogspot.com/2019/11/venezuela-and-cuba-as-trading-chip-for.html
Like
other aspects of Trump's policies that have benefited the Russians, there are
obviously other factors and motives at play. The gain for Putin in Cuba may be
purely coincidental but it is worth deeper investigation.
Clearly
if Biden-Harris follow through quickly on their campaign pledges, the dynamic
will change. The restoration of the embassy and the consulate will require some
resolution of the medical problems. Some stories appeared in October that
pointed the finger at the Russians, but still on the sonic wave premise. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/21/whats-behind-mysterious-illness-us-diplomats-spies-cuba-china-russia-microwave-attack/
Neither government has been particularly forthcoming. The Trump Administration fled the scene of the crime, completely surrendering to its perpetrator. It provided limited evidence to the Cubans, enabling them to dismiss the charges as phony or psychosomatic. It appeared that neither side wanted to find out what really happened or who was responsible. If it turns out the Russians were responsible using chemical toxins or unknown pulsed radiofrequency energy, I do not expect that to be stated publicly but the Cubans will make sure the attacks are not repeated.
We can throw into the mix with absolutely no basis for
linkage except my fevered imagination a November 16 post election raid by one
branch of Cuban intelligence (military) on the headquarters of another branch
(state) as reported by right wing exiles in Miami https://www.periodicocubano.com/contrainteligencia-militar-interviene-en-villa-marista/amp/
A May 2019 Foreign Policy article by Rebecca Bill Chavez, deputy assistant
secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs under Obama, described the impact of Trump sanctions on Cuba. Salient
excerpts:
- By exacerbating the economic downturn in Cuba, Trump and his ideologically
driven national security advisors are pushing Cuba into the arms of China and
Russia. ...
- This super-embargo won’t hasten a democratic transition in Cuba. Instead, it
will help both China and Russia achieve their stated policy goals of expanding
their influence in the Americas. ...
- As deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs
under Obama, I witnessed firsthand the benefits of his policy of engagement with
Cuba for U.S. security, including cooperation in areas such as counternarcotics,
migration, cybersecurity, and military medicine.
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/03/trumps-cuba-sanctions-are-a-mistake/
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